Sometimes, the two-horse races at the Academy Awards are just as hard to call as the categories that are simply up in the air. This race is one of those cases.

I’ll begin with a dark horse selection. “Simple Song #3,” from the Michael Caine vehicle Youth. It is a beautiful song, but it is failing to supplant the buzz of two other songs in the category.

These songs are the Golden Globe-winning James Bond theme “Writing’s on the Wall” from Sam Smith and James Napier and “Til It Happens to You” from the heavy documentary The Hunting Ground.

Smith and Napier have the benefit of winning the Golden Globe in this category (an award The Hunting Ground was not even nominated for). “Til It Happens to You,” on the other hand, has a meaningful impact given its advocacy and the popularity of Lady Gaga.

As a result, it is a close race, but “Til It Happens to You” should take home the gold.

 

Nominees:

• “Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
• “Til It Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
• “Manta Ray” (Racing Extinction)
• “Writing’s on the Wall” (Spectre)
• “Simple Song #3” (Youth)

 

Will Win: Til It Happens to You

Could Win: Writing’s on the Wall

Dark Horse: Simple Song #3

 

You can read all of my Oscar predictions for 2016 here.

As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)