Tag Archives: Academy Awards

2021 Oscar Predictions – Best Original & Adapted Screenplay

It is good to preface the Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay categories with the usual spiel about the Writers Guild Awards (WGA). It has been very common, since 2000, for the WGA award and the Academy Award to go to the same movie in these categories. There is the occasional split, but there are usually a reasonable explanation as to why this occurs (for example, The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King pulled off a massive sweep at the Oscars due to the Academy wanting to honor the series as a whole, while the WGA gave it to a much smaller film, American Splendor).

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Original Screenplay – The Nominees:

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2021 Oscar Predictions — Best Actor

The thing about Academy Award acting categories is that, while they are often some of the most high profile awards of the night, they are also some of the least exciting from a prediction standpoint. Of all categories, the acting categories are usually locked up long before the ceremony begins. In recent history in particular, the same acting nominees usually steamroll through awards season, winning every award leading up to the Oscars. Of course, there is always room for upset. But even so, entering the Oscars it is generally fairly clear who the top one or two contenders are.

This year’s Best Actor category is a little strange for reasons that are bittersweet.

2021 Oscar Predictions — Best Actress

You might think that this category is all wrapped up now that the Golden Globes have happened. But the Globes are not the be-all end-all predictor of the Oscars. This is particularly true in acting categories, where the campaigning to the Globes’ HFPA looks much different than it does for the Academy. Each year, there seems to be at least one off-the-beaten-path choice by the Globes in the acting categories. And this year, that left-field win appears to be from the Best Actress category.

2021 Oscar Predictions — Best Supporting Actor

Some people like to talk about “category fraud” in the acting categories. It is generally a fairly semantic debate. Is Lakeith Stanfield the lead of Judas and the Black Messiah? Why, then, is he nominated with Daniel Kaluuya in Supporting? Does that mean there is no lead actor in the film?

But it’s just a matter of campaigning. In general, it is easier to get your film’s actor nominated in a supporting category than it is the lead category. In ensemble films, it is fairly easy to make the argument that anyone is a supporting performance, just based on screentime and/or billing. I’d put Stanfield in the lead category, but I’m also just happy to see him nominated. He and Kaluuya both are two of the best actors working today.

2020 Academy Awards — Final Predictions Ballot

With the Oscars just hours away, it is time for me to re-evaluate my Oscar predictions and create my final ballot. Having written articles on every category during the past month, I will not elaborate on my choices here. Although some of my picks have changed since writing my initial articles, mainly due to how other awards ceremonies have played out, most of my changes are consistent with the lines of thinking I engage with in those previous articles.

Let’s get into it.

 

Best Picture

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2020 Oscar Predictions — Best Documentary Short Subject

Since writing my piece on the Best Animated Short Film category, I have caught up with my blindspot in that field, Dcera. Unfortunately, I find myself in a similar situation. Even more unfortunately, my blindspot in the Best Documentary Short Subject category is a pretty heavy contender: St. Louis Superman. But I have read up on the film enough that I think I can properly gauge its current place in the race.

And it is a close race at that.

The Nominees:

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The Neighbors’ Window — 2020 Oscar Nominated Live Action Short Film Review

Alli (Maria Dizzia) and Jacob (Greg Keller) are married with two children with another on the way. They live a fairly humdrum life until they notice a young couple move into an adjacent building. The pair of 20-somethings (Juliana Canfield and Bret Lada) don’t like the idea of blinds, even when they have wild, free-spirited sex.

Alli and Jacob’s vantage point to this couple begins shifting their views on their own relationship, and these shifts continue even after they have their next child.

The first glaring issue with The Neighbors’ Window, the short film from Marshall Curry which has been nominated for an Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film, is that Continue reading The Neighbors’ Window — 2020 Oscar Nominated Live Action Short Film Review

2020 Oscar Nominated Best Live Action Short Film Review — Une Soeur

The 2020 Academy Awards ceremony is a week away. Delphine Girard’s Une soeur is one of the five Best Live Action Short Film nominees, and it is worth taking a closer look at.

Girard’s film begins in a slightly disorienting way. A handheld camera in closeup, positioned in the backseat of a car driving in the night, captures Continue reading 2020 Oscar Nominated Best Live Action Short Film Review — Une Soeur

2020 Oscar Predictions — Best Original Score

I am not the type of person who remembers a film’s score long after I’ve left the theater. I kind of just let the score wash over me in the moment, and then it slowly escapes from my mind after I have written my review. Perhaps, then, I am no authority on the Best Original Score category. However, this year’s race has a pretty clear divide from which we can delineate frontrunners.

The Nominees:

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2020 Oscar Predictions — Best Original Song

Listen, I know we could talk about Oscar snubs all day and it wouldn’t make any difference. To an extent, expressing any amount of emotion for the Academy and their decisions is a waste of energy. It is all futile and arbitrary, and it’s better not to get caught up in it.

But, I mean, there’s no love for “Glasgow” in the Best Original Song category? It is a great song inside a lovely little film called Wild Rose. It deserved some recognition here. Seriously, what the f–

The Nominees:

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