It seems that the entire world is on his side. But is the Academy on his side?
Leonardo DiCaprio being “continuously” snubbed from an Oscar win at Best Actor has essentially become a meme at this point. And I’ll be the first to admit that Twitter might crash if he doesn’t win for The Revenant on Feb. 28.
Here’s the thing, though. He is going to win.
First off, it appears that the PR campaign for The Revenant in award season is geared toward putting Leo in the limelight. Both times director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu was on stage during the Golden Globes accepting an award, he mentioned Leo as the shining achievement of the film, the “hero” and “the guy.”
Also, DiCaprio received a standing-O later in the night when he won for Best Actor in a Drama.
So this is just another lousy blogger’s opinion about Leo winning an Oscar. Who cares? That doesn’t mean anything.
But literally every other entertainment industry journalist is in agreement about this.
GoldDerby aggregates predictions and odds about award shows. As for the experts, they all are going with Leo to win. Combining experts, GoldDerby editors, and GoldDerby users together, and Leo is shown with 1/10 odds of winning the award.
Oh, and winning a SAG award doesn’t hurt his chances any.
Leo’s chances have never been this good. The four-time Best Actor nominee lost to obvious frontfunners in previous years: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club in 2014, Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland in 2007.
2005 was a strange case, where Jamie Foxx won for Ray in a category that also included Don Cheadle in Hotel Rwanda and DiCarpio in The Aviator. If anything, that is the year DiCaprio officially got snubbed, but I would have put my money on Cheadle in that race.
2016 isn’t a quiet acting year, don’t get me wrong. Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne, and Matt Damon could win in different years. Some consider Fassbender the real frontrunner. Others mention Redmayne as an upset pick. But either of them winning is highly unlikely.
This Oscar is DiCaprio’s to lose. And if he does, it will be an inexplicable upset.
As always, thanks for reading!
You can find my full list of Oscar predictions here.
—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)