This weekend is an interesting one in terms of box office. While it is somewhat clear what movie will take the top spot, the number of new releases of various sizes leads to some question marks. There are five new releases this Friday: Unforgettable, Free Fire, The Promise, Born in China, and Phoenix Forgotten. Additionally, The Lost City of Z will see an expansion.
This is adding to the already full theaters that still carry Boss Baby, Beauty and the Beast, and Smurfs. Then there’s Fate of the Furious, entering its second week after a record breaking opening weekend internationally.
It’s a full house. Let’s (try to) figure it out.
Box Office Predictions: Weekend of 4/21
- Fate of the Furious – $52 million
- Boss Baby – $9 million
- Beauty and the Beast – $7.5 million
- Unforgettable – $6 million
- The Promise – $3.5 million
There is no direct competition to Fate of the Furious this weekend. The only question is how far it will drop. Given that these films do most of their business overseas, it isn’t going to have the longest legs in the U.S. But these films are not necessarily the ones where people are champing at the bit to see it right out of the gate. Not to mention that the weekday numbers for the film have hovered around $8 million, which is fairly impressive.
The drop here could be as low as 35% but will more likely be between 40-50%. Says me, a guy who is mostly making this all up.
That’s right: I’m a fraud! Shall we continue?
The new releases this weekend are very strange. Unforgettable, the Rosario Dawson-starring suspense thriller will likely be the highest grosser of the newbies. It has the widest release according to Box Office Mojo, and there is actually a marketing campaign behind it.
The other film that has some marketing legs behind it is Free Fire, which is only being released in 1,070 theaters according to the BOM. The film could have a decent per theater average, and it would need it to reach the top five. It is more of a niche film, and it is R-rated. Most likely, it will fall into the lower half of the top ten.
The Promise and Smurfs: The Lost Village will battle for the fifth spot. A generously low drop off could give Smurfs the edge, but The Promise is tracking fairly high on IMDb (as of today). So perhaps that will give it a meager fifth place finish.
It will be a disappointing week numbers-wise given the number of releases. It is an odd anomaly that so many non-saturated releases are all coming at the same time, as if theaters nationwide have to choose between them. Poor scheduling on the studios’ part, I guess.
As always, thanks for reading!
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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)