Mid-June 2017 sees the release of four new wide release films at the domestic box office, all in various genres. The Tupac biopic All Eyez on Me, releasing in 2,400 theaters, will look to bank off of the success of 2015’s similar Straight Outta Compton. Shark thriller 47 Meters Down—3,500 theaters—will look to bank off of the minor success of last year’s The Shallows.
Then there is Disney-Pixar’s Summer effort Cars 3. The first sequel in the series made about $50 million less than the original, which itself is only the 10th highest grossing film in the Pixar family.
Along with these new films, potential flops like The Mummy and runaway successes like Wonder Woman continue their box office runs this weekend.
With all of these films competing, let’s try to maneuver a box office top five for this weekend. Shall we?
Box Office Predictions: Weekend of 6/16
- Cars 3 – $63 million
- Wonder Woman – $35 million
- Rough Night – $18 million
- The Mummy – $13 million
- 47 Meters Down – $10 million
A healthy third-weekend drop for Wonder Woman will still keep it around the $40 million mark. Cars 3 can top this with a release similar to its previous incarnations.
The Mummy will drop anywhere from 50%-60% and will struggle to compete with the new competition.
The real question is which of the new releases will succeed in the current market. All Eyez on Me could reach the top five with good press, but the release size of the film is substantially smaller than the other films in contention.
47 Meters Down could pull in the genre market. The formula-similar film The Shallows opened to $12 million on a similar weekend in a similar number of theaters. A $10-$12 million opening seems likely.
Sony comedy Rough Night could succeed on its star power—the film stars an ensemble cast including Scarlett Johansson and Kate McKinnon. The most recent comparison in genre and casting is Bad Moms, which took in $23 million in its opening weekend. This film hasn’t received the same marketing campaign as Moms, but it could still come off with a strong opening weekend.
Rounding out the top ten for the weekend will be Captain Underpants, Pirates 5, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.
As always, thanks for reading!
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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)