Ah well, shooting fish in a barrel can be fun.
The Nominees – Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Dark Horse: First They Killed My Father
First They Killed My Father is the selection that has the Hollywood bias to it, insofar as Angelina Jolie directed the film. This could give the film an edge, and the HFPA could laud Jolie for taking a risk directing a foreign language film outside of the United States. The HFPA could also push back against a Hollywood figure directing a foreign feature and turn their attention elsewhere.
The safe pick here is The Square, the Dominic West and Elisabeth Moss-starring Swedish comedy that won the 2017 Palme d’Or at Cannes. The answer may not be so simple, though. Critically, The Square has under-performed since its initial showing at Cannes. Conversely, films like A Fantastic Woman and Loveless have received high critical praise.
Not to mention that the Palme d’Or (when the winning film is in a non-English language) does not match up with the Globes and the Oscars as often as you might think.
In the Fade, for now, feels like the long shot. The real surprise in this category is the notable absence of films like BPM and Happy End. I had a suspicion that they would be in the mix instead of In the Fade and Loveless.
The takeaway from all of this is that the Best Foreign Language Film category is not as locked up as you might believe. It would not surprise anyone if The Square took it, but it is by no means a shoo-in.
As always, thanks for reading!
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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)