Summer 2024 Box Office Predictions

Update (4/27/24): Following publication of this article, Sony announced it would be pushing the release of Kraven the Hunter to December 2024, moving it out of the summer box office conversation. Turns out I, in fact, did mention this film more times than I needed to.

We are about to enter a bleak summer for theatrical cinema. For several reasons – chief among them the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes of last year causing delays – 2024 has less to offer than previous years when it comes to big budget blockbuster tentpoles. Even with first quarter offerings like Dune: Part Two, Ghostbuster: Frozen Empire, and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (between the three, Hollywood may be tipping a tad too imperial), the box office is lagging behind 20% compared to the numbers from this time last year. Deadline reports a projected $1 billion drop in box office by year’s end.

The summer will likely be where this deficit is felt the hardest. Whereas most May months of recent years (pandemic year 2020 notwithstanding) have begun with a massive franchise tentpole from Disney, 2024’s summer season begins with The Fall Guy, a non-IP picture from Universal that hopes to bank on the residual appeal of Ryan Gosling’s Ken. The season’s only true superhero film (with apologies to Kraven the Hunter, who isn’t a superhero and who will not get another mention in this article) is Marvel’s introduction of the X-Men property into their MCU in Deadpool and Wolverine. The Disney film will not hit theaters until July 26.

Until then, audiences will be met with questionable attempts at franchising (Twisters, Bad Boys: Ride or Die, The Strangers: Chapter 1), a smattering of horror-thrillers of various budgetary scope (A Quiet Place: Day One, Tarot, The Watchers), and family fare (IF, Despicable Me 4, The Garfield Movie, Inside Out 2). Later in the summer is more of the same, with Lionsgate attempting to Guardians of the Galaxy-ify the video game franchise Borderlands, 20^th Century Studios working to reignite the Alien franchise with Alien: Romulus, and Sony continuing to act like a sad and confused lost puppy by adapting its stable of Marvel properties that seem to appeal to no one (OK, so I did mention Kraven again. Nobody’s perfect.)

How will the box office shake out this summer? Here’s one person’s thoughts, presented in the format of the annual Summer Movie Wager, in which participants predict the top 10 box office finishers and three unranked “dark horse” candidates.

Top 10

Deadpool and Wolverine
Despicable Me 4
Inside Out 2
Bad Boys: Ride or Die
A Quiet Place: Day One
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
The Fall Guy
Borderlands
The Garfield Movie

Dark Horse:

Twisters
IF
The Watchers

I see these 10 films as the most likely to reach the top 10 by the summer season’s end on Labor Day weekend. Although, I am far less convinced on the order. I am inclined to think, based solely on past box office performance, that the lone superhero IP will win the day. We could talk about the fatigue that is finally starting to hit Marvel in its pocket books, but Deadpool and Wolverine promises something different. The incorporation of the X-Men into the MCU has been long awaited by fans. Not to mention the previous two Deadpool films, despite their R-ratings, have enjoyed broad appeal, netting $363 and $324 million domestic, respectively.

This said, the Despicable Me franchise has been a box office juggernaut for years. And it has existed long enough that children who enjoyed the first film in 2010 are now part of different age demos. When you consider broad appeal, you can’t do much better than children forcing their parents into the theater and teens and twenty-somethings showing up. The mainline Despicable Me films have never grossed more (domestic) than those Deadpool films, but the two Minions films have achieved very similar numbers to the “Merc with the Mouth” ($336 and $370 million). Suffice it to say, it will likely be a close race at the top for Deadpool and Despicable Me.

From there, the top 10 could go anywhere. Tested IP will likely prevail over more risky original swings like IF and The Fall Guy. At the same time, some uses of IP may flop horrendously (I’m looking at Borderlands, The Garfield Movie, and Twisters, in particular). Borderlands at least gets two weeks distance from Deadpool, but both The Garfield Movie and Twisters open against significant competition. Twisters’ second weekend may be decimated by Deadpool, and IF and The Garfield Movie (opening on back-to-back weekends) will probably cannibalize each other.

I think The Fall Guy will benefit from first mover advantage. It kicks off the season, and while it will likely do this less successfully than previous films in that weekend’s slot, it has a good chance of winning people over.

Meanwhile, sequels and prequels Inside Out 2, Bad Boys: Ride or Die, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and A Quiet Place: Day One will scramble to outperform their predecessors in a less-competitive calendar. For what it’s worth, Fandango’s Moviegoing Trends & Insights study for Spring 2024 has these films (save for Mad Max) in the top 10 most anticipated summer offerings among survey participants. Bad Boys: Ride or Die was number two on this list.

The film I am most curious about in this crop of summer releases is The Watchers. It is a long shot to crack the top 10, but there is an intriguing narrative to this summer having two M. Night Shyamalan-related releases. M. Night’s own film, Trap, opens in August; from everything I’ve seen about it, it does not scream box office potential. However, The Watchers, his daughter’s directing debut, has enough high concept genre stuff going on that it could be a sleeper success if it gets good reviews and strong word of mouth. Ishana Shyamalan’s film opens June 14.

We’re entering an odd summer at the box office. With little in the way of the comic book blockbusters that have dominated the box office for decades, and no surprise Barbenheimer phenomenon, the complexion of things looks different this year.

As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Letterboxd, Facebook)