Ah yes, Part 3. It’s kind of like a trilogy…except we aren’t halfway through yet. So it’s like a trilogy, if…you don’t understand prefixes. Getting technical with this one, so bust out your kinetograph, your Rolodex, your splicing tape, and your 3D rendering software of choice.

Here’s Part 1. Don’t forget Part 2.

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Best Casting

The inaugural Best Casting field is a very good one. This race mostly replicates the Best Picture race, in that Sinners and One Battle After Another are the two obvious choices. The most comparable major award to this is probably the Actors Awards top award, which is awarded to the most Outstanding Performance by a Cast. Sinners won this, and thus will likely win here, as well. But the voting bodies aren’t identical, and the One Battle ensemble is also quite good. On a side note, I would have slotted in Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident instead of Marty Supreme and Hamnet, but who am I?

Will Win: Francine Maisler, Sinners

Could Win: Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another

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Best Cinematography

A Train Dreams upset would be a nice reprieve from the major narrative of this Oscar night, which will inevitably be Sinners vs. One Battle After Another. It could happen, if the Sinners stans and One Battle stans split the vote. But I think that is an unlikely outcome. One Battle makes sense for my ballot, as I have it winning Best Picture. It is hard to justify why one film has better cinematography than others in this particular field—arguably, Train Dreams is the “best” work, but it isn’t as big of an Oscar player. One Battle After Another and Sinners are both “cinematic,” in the sense that voters who saw it in the theater will likely walk away thinking about the visual spectacle of both films. I would imagine voters equate that feeling with cinematography (among other things).

Will Win: Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

Could Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

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Best Editing

Best Editing can go one of two ways this year, I think. It can pair with the Best Picture winner, so either One Battle After Another or Sinners, depending on who you ask. It could also go to a film that has earned big nominations where the success of the film hinges on very apparent editing schemes. That would be F1. If F1 had not sneaked into the Best Picture field, I don’t think I would bat an eye at saying this is One Battle After Another’s award. Now, I am not so sure. Enough of the Academy saw and liked F1 enough to give it a Best Picture nomination, and the editing is one of the strongest aspects of the film.

To give a comp: Ford v Ferrari won Best Editing in 2019, and, if you recall, that film did not win Best Picture. The last three years saw Best Picture and Best Editing align, but when a film comes along where many people watched it and its editing is very visible, things can shift. Dune in 2021 (Coda was not nominated), Sound of Metal in 2020 (won over Nomadland), Dunkirk in 2017 (won over The Shape of Water), etc. etc. I think F1 is exactly this kind of film, and it is therefore my pick.

Will Win: F1

Could Win: One Battle After Another

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Best Visual Effects

It is hard to deny the supremacy of Avatar: Fire and Ash in this category. Cameron’s films remain on the cutting edge of digital effects technology, and Fire and Ash is not facing the stiffest of competitions. The closest thing to an upset bid comes from F1, which was strong enough to also get a Best Picture nomination. But this is an extremely unlikely scenario.

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Could Win: F1

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As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Letterboxd)