Having arrived very late to the Oscar prediction party this year, I am splitting up my ballot into 4-5 articles, just to get them out in the most timely possible fashion. Currently, you are in the sweet spot of the headliner categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress). The big categories are usually among the easier to predict, but not this year!

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Best Picture

Sinners could very well walk away from Oscar Sunday with the most awards, and it has a real shot at winning Best Picture. The anointing of One Battle After Another across the awards season makes it a hard film to bet against. One Battle has won the top award from the following awards-giving bodies: the BAFTA, the PGA, the DGA, the WGA, the Critics Choice Award, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award, the National Board of Review Award, the National Society of Film Critics Award, the New York Film Critics Circle Award, the Golden Globe, and the Gotham Award. Nothing has slowed it down. The possibility of a Best Picture and Best Director split is an outside possibility, but unlikely. And no other film outside of Sinners is going to come out of nowhere and upset.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Could Win: Sinners

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Best Director

Speaking of a Best Picture and Best Director split, there is no doubt that it is Paul Thomas Anderson’s year to be crowned. Again, it is an anointment. It is the type of year where voters look at the field and say, it’s his time. He is a filmmaker that has been around making quality cinema in Hollywood for three decades, and prior to One Battle he had 11 nominations without a win. He will win multiple this time around (at least two; three barring the aforementioned split). The hopeful takeaway from this race is that there is a potential future where we look back at Sinners as Ryan Coogler’s There Will Be Blood. He could have won it this year, and hopefully he has 20 years of good films left in him that will yield a “it’s his time” Oscar in the future.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Could Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

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Best Actress

Jessie Buckley wins. It’s a shame for Rose Byrne, who is fantastic in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You and my personal pick. But no one usurps Buckley. For whatever reason, it is just that simple. (I mean, there are some reasons. Emma Stone has won multiple at this point. Kate Hudson was a nice surprise in the “just happy to be nominated” slot. Renate Reinsve is great and nuanced in a film that is more of an ensemble piece and whose Oscars stock has been very cool over the past few months. Byrne is the only competition, and Buckley was doing “more” in the performance. Love Buckley, she’s great. This isn’t her best performance, in my opinion, but that doesn’t count for anything.)

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Could Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

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Best Actor

The most interesting major category, I think, is Best Actor. If Chalamet loses here, some may start to consider him cursed (or simply unlikeable). There is something about his celebrity status that seems to get him just close enough to this achievement before the world suddenly decides that he is too much (or at least he has a foot-in-mouth situation every time he’s up for the biggest award of his career). I don’t necessarily think this means the Academy has soured on him, though. Over the last few days, the odds (courtesy of GoldDerby) have shifted drastically in favor of Michael B. Jordan. The race now seems like a toss-up, but if I was being forced to lay money down, I’d choose Michael B. Jordan. But I also just changed the end of that last sentence while prepping this for publication. It is that close of a race. Jordan has the benefit now of the Actors Award, and the recency effect of that win/speech on voters could push him over the edge.

For the nothing that it is worth (as he has no chance of winning), Ethan Hawke may be giving the best performance in his long career in Blue Moon. Just transfixing.

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Could Win: Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme

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As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Letterboxd)