It’s Part 2 time. It’s like a Part 1, but a second one. We’re in the second half of the “above the line” categories. So keep your eye out for the line. It’s arbitrary and antiquated, so it’s easy to miss. But from what I understand, there is a line, and we’re about to pass it.

Here’s Part 1.

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Best Supporting Actor

I don’t fully understand the Sean Penn aspect of One Battle After Another. I don’t personally dislike him in the film, but on a performance level I find him the least interesting of the principle characters. Benicio Del Toro, meanwhile, is the best performance in the film, some (and I) argue. While Penn is the favorite to win and was the Actors Awards winner, there is some reality in which Penn and Del Toro split the vote in the same way that Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning will split the Supporting Actress vote when it comes to the Sentimental Value stans. Speaking of which, Stellan Skarsgard is doing career work in Sentimental Value, and his role is far closer to a lead performance than any of his fellow nominees can say.

A Delroy upset would be fun. Just saying.

Will Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Could Win: Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

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Best Supporting Actress

Weapons was nowhere near my favorite film of 2025, but it would be pleasant to see a weird horror movie performance win an Oscar. The odd thing about the Best Supporting Actress race is that the two odds-on frontrunners—Amy Madigan (Weapons) and Teyana Taylor (One Battle)—are in quite a small portion of their respective films. Madigan likely clocks in with more screentime, but her character arrives fairly late to Weapons, and Taylor’s leaves fairly early in One Battle. This is the only reason why I would hold out some hope that Wunmi Mosaku (my personal choice) could win this, simply because she has a lot more room to operate in Sinners. Madigan winning the Actors Award (formerly the SAG Award) rightfully makes her the odds makers’ favorite, but I think this category is far from a settled matter.

My neanderthal brain can’t conjure the image of the Academy (often hostile to horror pictures) playing a clip of Madigan going freak mode in Weapons, then reading her name and her taking the stage. It just doesn’t feel like the Academy…that said, Anora, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Parasite didn’t feel very “Oscar movie,” and they all went gangbusters. Demi Moore was this close to winning Best Actress for The Substance. Maybe the Academy is changing for the weird (i.e., for the better), and I’m just slow to catch up in my predictions. I’m still going gut.

Will Win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Could Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons

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Best Original Screenplay

I wish this category was more interesting, but Sinners has no true competition left in this category. The aforementioned cooling of Sentimental Value (a great movie, I must stress) and the lack of momentum for Blue Moon and It Was Just an Accident (also a great movie) leave very little competition. Marty Supreme would be interesting here, but as much as I enjoy what that film is doing, its story structure is such a chaotic clusterfuck (intentionally so, mind you) that I don’t see the Academy (particularly the older Academy voters) going for it over other nominees.

Will Win: Sinners

Could Win: Sentimental Value

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Best Adapted Screenplay

The One Battle sweep scenario begins with Best Adapted Screenplay. There aren’t many other scenarios that could play out in this category anyway, so things are looking good for Paul Thomas Anderson. Earlier in the season, I would have put money on Hamnet, but this One Battle train is barreling full speed through the season. I personally like the adaptation choices Guillermo del Toro made in Frankenstein, but I think the majority opinion is opposed to mine. And Bugonia is too weird, frankly, for the more traditional voting corps of the Academy.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Could Win: Hamnet

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As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Letterboxd)