In previous years, I have taken the time to break down every Oscar race, assess each nominee’s odds, and ultimately give a prediction in each category. This year, time is short, so here we are. Last second predictions.

Here is one film critic’s ballot of Oscar predictions, full of hedged bets, personal opinions, the occasional bold swing, and pauses for halfhearted explanation.

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Best Picture

Will Win: Anora
Could Win: The Brutalist
Biased Opinion: The Substance or Nickel Boys should win

I mulled over the possibilities of a Conclave win (possible) or A Complete Unknown winning through being second or third on everyone’s preferential ballot (unlikely). Ultimately, though, I find it difficult to see a path away from Anora, which has stormed through the gates in recent weeks to win pretty much every major Best Picture precursor (Critics Choice, Director’s Guild, and Producer’s Guild). Conclave won the major Ensemble category at SAG, so the film has something to show for itself. Still, it is hard for me not to at least mention The Brutalist, which was the apparent front-runner early in the year and will potentially see its Oscar legacy be the classic case of a film peaking too early.

Best Director

Will Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Could Win: Sean Baker – Anora
Biased Opinion: RaMell Ross should have been nominated

In a year that did not have a firm front-runner until recently (Anora), the possibility for a Picture-Director split is very real. No matter what happens in Best Picture, the winner is not running away with the award with a major consensus in voter opinion. And given that Best Picture, and Best Picture alone, is preferential ballot voting, Best Director could easily go a different way. I’m going with my head and picking Corbet, even as my gut is squirming at the notion of Baker winning DGA then losing here. Admittedly, it feels like a bit of a stretch on my part.

Best Actress

Will Win: Demi Moore – The Substance
Could Win: Mikey Madison – Anora

Part of me wants to spend the space here arguing for why Fernanda Torres has a reasonable shot at upsetting in this category, but that may not be prudent. Demi Moore has swept essentially every precursor to this award, and she has the history of her own celebrity baked into this role in a way that is just too appealing to the Academy for them to let this moment slip away. I feel she is a lock to win here, even as Madison and Torres are both very strong contenders.

Best Actor

Will Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Could Win: Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Biased Opinion: Sebastian Stan should have been nominated for A Different Man

Chalamet recently winning the Screen Actor’s Guild award is a big deal. He certainly has a good shot at winning this race. That said, he is a young celebrity fighting in a category that is biased away from rewarding young talent (see, most recently: Austin Butler in Elvis). Chalamet using his SAG speech time talking about how he wants to be the acting GOAT and that this is a stepping stone on that journey wouldn’t have done him any favors, either, if Oscar voting was still underway at that time. I still like Brody’s chances despite the SAG loss. And personally, I’m rooting for the chaos of a Ralph Fiennes upset.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Could Win: Essentially no one else

Culkin is winning this race in a walk. From the very beginning of awards season, he seemed to have this thing locked up, and there has been no sign to the contrary since. In a year where Anora sweeps everything, Yura Borisov would have a puncher’s chance here, but I just don’t think that film is sweeping. And Edward Norton got a lot of praise for his work in A Complete Unknown, but I just don’t see it. Everyone will be surprised if Kieran Culkin doesn’t win on Sunday.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
Could Win: Isabella Rosellini – Conclave

It is hard to see anyone other than Saldana winning this category. Despite the collapse that was Emilia Perez‘s Oscar campaign, Saldana has continued strong throughout the season. The backlash to the film, to comments director Jacques Audiard made, and social media posts Saldana’s co-star Karla Sofia Gascon made a few years back have not stopped Saldana from winning awards and carrying the torch for the film. The Academy (prior to some of this backlash) clearly loved the film, as it received 13 nominations. Emilia Perez will not go home empty handed, and Saldana will almost certainly be one of those wins.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
Could Win: Conclave – Peter Straughan
Biased Opinion: My love for Nickel Boys may be clouding my judgment

This is the first major zag in my predictions. The betting favorite according to Gold Derby is Conclave, and with good reason. It is an outside Best Picture contender that the Academy really went for in its nominations (Conclave received 8 nods). The Writer’s Guild did opt to award Nickel Boys, but that branch is not as representative of the entire Academy as the acting branch is (i.e., WGA is not as predictive as SAG is, judging solely on numbers). But here’s my pitch. Nickel Boys won a major precursor award in this category. It is also liked by enough of the Academy that it snuck into the Best Picture race ahead of films many considered to be more likely to get the nomination (e.g., A Real Pain, Sing Sing). Voters may look to reward an acclaimed film in Screenplay that they don’t think will be rewarded elsewhere on the ballot, and Nickel Boys could be that film.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
Could Win: Anora – Sean Baker
Could (also) Win: A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg

This is one of the more competitive categories of the year. Anora seems favored, given the film is peaking at the right time. I just find it difficult to imagine an Anora sweep, even as I am predicting the film to win Best Picture. That said, I was mightily wrong when Parasite swept a few years back (although, these are two very different awards seasons). The Substance has previous screenplay accolades (it won Best Screenplay at Cannes). It is clearly liked by the Academy despite being generically provocative (when was the last time a movie with genuine splatter film moments won an Oscar?). And while A Real Pain has a screenplay that feels destined to win a Best Original Screenplay Oscar, it falling short of other key nominations (namely, Best Picture) makes it difficult for me to pick it as a favorite. The Substance would be an upset in this category, but I like the odds.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: The Brutalist – Lol Crawley
Could Win: Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke

Cinematography is one of the few moments in the night where The Brutalist can rack up a win. Voters clearly like the film, despite it slipping out of front-runner status. The Brutalist has a grand narrative (and visual) scope, and, frankly, it looks very good. One could say the same of Nosferatu, and one could also argue for the much bigger scope of Dune: Part Two. These are fair counters, and … I’m too lazy to rebut. Like a degenerate gambler, I feel good about The Brutalist.

Best Editing

Will Win: Anora – Sean Baker
Could Win: Conclave – Nick Emerson

Editing is going to be something of a bell-weather early in the night (well, probably more like halfway through the night). It and Original Screenplay will test the temperature of Anora‘s overall heat. Sean Baker, on his own, is capable of winning the most Oscars in a single ceremony since Walt Disney did it (and Disney didn’t win them all for the same movie). I think a Baker loss will occur somewhere in the night, ultimately seeing him falling short of this historic benchmark. Most think it will be here, with editing. I guess I am going against the grain counting him short in Best Director. Still, editing is such a strong part of how Anora comes together. If voters are actually voting on the merits of the category, I’m not sure what Conclave presents that Anora does not present better. And if they are voting in alignment with Best Picture (which admittedly used to happen way more than it does these days), then Anora also seems like the logical choice.

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Wicked – Paul Tazewell
Could Win: Nosferatu – Linda Muir

Here is where Wicked will likely walk away with something. In another year, I’d love Nosferatu‘s chances. But Wicked was such a big event at the end of last year, and that cultural presence pushed it through most of awards season such that it ended up getting a good number of important nominations. Still, I think it is Costume Design or bust for Wicked.

Best Production Design

Will Win: The Brutalist – Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia
Could Win: Wicked – Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales

I think the common wisdom at this point in the season has it that Wicked will pick up exactly two awards: Costume Design and Production Design. And I can see it. It is very possible. It would be a real sign of The Brutalist‘s falling star if it does not pick this up, though. Production design is at the core of this film’s narrative. An entire stretch of the first act involves designing a library, and the reveal of the finished product is meant to be a stunning moment. Whether that moment worked for voters or not may be the difference between The Brutalist and Wicked winning. This is to say nothing of Nosferatu, which I personally think represents this category best. Or Conclave, which recreated portions of the Vatican. Kind of a wide open category when you really look at it…

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Will Win: The Substance – Pierre Olivier Persin, Stephanie Guillon, Marilyne Scarselli
Could Win: Wicked – Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, Sarah Nuth

It seems unlikely that anything will unseat The Substance here. One could make the argument that the film is too gross for Academy love, but I don’t think that means a whole lot, considering how many nominations The Substance landed. And Makeup & Hairstyling has gone to much worse films with genre-centric makeup work before (Suicide Squad, anyone?) Wicked has the outside edge, but that film’s overall awards season stock has steadily and consistently declined since December.

Best Score

Will Win: Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
Could Win: Volker Bertelmann – Conclave

The Conclave and The Wild Robot scores are both very good, and there was a time in the season where I thought either could rise to the top. The Brutalist just appears to be the favored choice here. (I have to admit, I began this article thinking I would only write little blurbs under a few races that I found the most interesting, but now here I am trying to say something useful about Best Score … scores, in general, are a great and powerful force in cinema … The Brutalist score has these weird bits where Daniel Blumberg put screws in-between piano strings to create these whiny, percussive sounds … OK, I’m done with this bit now). Moving on.

Best Song

Will Win: Emilia Perez – “El Mal” – Clement Ducol, Camille, Jacques Audiard
Could Win: The Six Triple Eight – “The Journey” – Diane Warren

The pertinent question here is: Is it finally time for Diane Warren to win her Oscar? And I think the answer is, No. Warren has received a butt-load (read: 16) of nominations in this category over the years with 0 wins. It isn’t like Tyler Perry’s The Six Triple Eight is a heavy Oscar contender or anything. But if anyone is going to prosper off the demise of Emilia Perez in this category, it is probably Warren. (I don’t hate the chances for Sing Sing here, either, for what it’s worth). All this said, “El Mal” is still the favorite, and the controversy around Emilia Perez is not going to translate to that film leaving Sunday night empty handed. Best Song and Best Supporting Actress are still that film’s awards to lose.

Best Sound

Will Win: A Complete Unknown – Tod A. Maitland, Ted Caplan, David Giammarco, Donald Sylvester, Paul Massey
Could Win: Dune: Part Two – Gareth John, Ron Bartlett, Richard King, Doug Hemphill

Dune: Part Two makes the most sense when it comes to this category. The first Dune film won this category a few years ago, and it isn’t as though the second film took a step down in terms technical quality. There is something to be said, though, about A Complete Unknown. Not only has it had a fairly successful awards season overall, but its sound design is also fairly integral to the film being effective. The entire climactic Newport Folk Festival sequence requires good sound design to succeed. This may simply stick in the mind’s of voters better than a sci-fi epic sequel (an important keyword) that came out a year ago.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Dune: Part Two – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer
Could Win: Wicked – Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, Paul Corbould

Visual Effects can be a tricky category. Dune: Part Two seems like the most likely candidate just on account of it having a lot going on in the VFX department. They’re good effects, too. The only thing keeping this from being a lock is that it doesn’t appear that the film has a real hot Oscar stock. I don’t necessarily think Wicked deserves to win over Dune, but it feels distinctly possible. Meanwhile, I was pretty shocked to see Alien: Romulus show up here in the first place, and Better Man and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes might just cancel each other out (I’m crossing my fingers for the cross-over film where Robbie Williams has to face the existential and sociopolitical weight of a simian-ruled post-apocalypse).

Best International Film

Will Win: I’m Still Here
Could Win: Emilia Perez

The big question mark with Best International Film is whether the maelstrom that was the Emilia Perez backlash will prevent voters from honoring it beyond individual achievement (Best Song, Best Supporting Actress). I’m Still Here is a heavy hitter with a very vocal contingent of supporters, and it also getting a Best Picture nomination makes it an appealing choice here. I think it will eke this one out, but I wouldn’t be shocked by Emilia Perez.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: The Wild Robot
Could Win: Flow

The story of Flow winning would be a pleasant one. It is such a small film from a country that rarely gets any attention in the broader film world. To see it win would be great. That said, The Wild Robot is a huge crowd-pleasing favorite that feels much more attuned to how the Academy usually votes. In the absence of a good Pixar contender (sorry, Inside Out 2, it isn’t going to happen), The Wild Robot sweeps in to fill the shoes.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: Porcelain War
Could Win: No Other Land

No Other Land is the odds-on favorite, and it has been for some time. I would be happy to see it win (it was one of my favorite movies of the year). There is something odd about it, though, given that it has been flatly shunned by the United States film industry. When was the last time a feature film won an Oscar without having U.S. distribution? (This is a genuine question; I have no idea). I don’t know how the industry could justify heralding a film that it refuses to platform. This is without mentioning that the macro-politics of the subject matter is more hot button than Hollywood may be willing to go for (recall how Jonathan Glazer’s acceptance speech from last year was received by the broader industry). Porcelain War is something the Academy (which occasionally likes to signal its broadly liberal politics with this category) can more easily rally behind, especially considering how the current administration has handled the war in Ukraine [Note: I wrote this bit before the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Friday Feb. 28, but … that event also speaks to my point].

Best Live Action Short

Will Win: A lien
Could Win: Anuja
Biased Opinion: The live action shorts are often very mediocre, but I’m Not a Robot is fairly fun

Speaking of the Academy and its politics, Live Action Short is another category that could be a platform for the Academy to tout its political affiliations. Again, considering the current administration, if the Academy wants to symbolically gesture towards a response to the President (which they do like to do), then A lien is the choice. Frankly, I think it is a pretty bad film and a blatantly manipulative appeal to emotions, but it is a film about restrictive immigration policies and their impact on families. If Academy voters watched the film, this could be the pick. Otherwise, Anuja‘s availability on Netflix gives it the visibility boost that could put it over the edge.

Best Animated Short

Will Win: Yuck!
Could Win: Magic Candies

This is the single hardest category to predict this year. And it doesn’t help my case that I have not seen all of the nominees…. Yuck! has the sweet/cute factor. In the Shadow of the Cypress and Beautiful Men appear much more emotionally dense. Wander to Wonder is too out-there for what the Academy usually anoints (it’s worth the watch). I’m not directly accusing the Academy of being shallow, but … the easiest emotional appeal might be the most likely candidate in this case. Heartwarming and life-affirming may be the mood, and Yuck! and Magic Candies seem to be striking that mood the strongest out of these five.

Best Documentary Short

Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Could Win: Incident

I would like to say that Incident will win this, as it is the most innovative and incisive of these docs. That said, it is also a lot to digest. I Am Ready, Warden, meanwhile, packages its tough subject matter in an easier way (in my opinion, in a way that makes the film ineffective, but I don’t think this will deter many Academy voters). On the other side, you have heartwarming fare like The Only Girl in the Orchestra and Instruments of a Beating Heart, and this counter-programming may do them some favors. The Only Girl in the Orchestra is currently second-best odds on Gold Derby, which wasn’t the case a week ago, and I am not exactly sure why the sudden change.

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As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Letterboxd, Facebook)