What can one say about Part 5? I’m being non-rhetorical…I’m running out of numerical-based banter. We’re still doing Oscars predictions.

Here’s Part 1. Don’t forget Part 2. Part 3 is magical. I’ve never seen anything quite like Part 4.

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Best Documentary Feature

I honestly don’t get the The Perfect Neighbor buzz, but it has won all over the place in doc categories. It is far and away the favorite here. The investigative work in The Alabama Solution deserves praise, but no one is talking about that film. I’m surprised to see Come See Me in the Good Light and Cutting Through Rocks instead of other shortlisted films that could have made it—Cover-Up, 2000 Meters to Andriivka. Best Documentary is one of the categories I tend to get wrong often, but it would be a surprise if The Perfect Neighbor didn’t win. If I am wrong, then perhaps Mr. Nobody Against Putin—it fits the track record of the Academy trumpeting against Russia (20 Days in Mariupol, Navalny, and to a lesser extent Icarus).

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor

Could Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

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Best Animated Feature

Very little to say here. KPop Demon Hunters cannot and will not be dethroned in this category. It was such a cultural juggernaut that Netflix even acquiesced to movie theaters (for but a moment). Zootopia 2 being a massive box office hit may steer some betters toward the long odds, but don’t be fooled.

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters

Could Win: Zootopia 2

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Best International Film

It’s a shame No Other Choice didn’t make the cut here, but all in all this is a very good crop of films. Sirat did not move the needle for me (what a strange film), but many others liked it and I can understand why. Otherwise, I personally enjoyed all of these films. The unfortunate reality of the Academy is that I doubt most of them have seen all five of these films, which skews the likely winner towards films that have nominations elsewhere. This essentially narrows it in to Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. Frankly, I think this is a toss-up between the two films. The odds heavily favor Sentimental Value, but The Secret Agent once had plenty of momentum. Now, both films are far removed from the Best Picture race. I think it could go either way, but my pick is Sentimental Value.

I heard one argument on this category by Hillary Busis at Vanity Fair, who is picking It Was Just an Accident given the geopolitics of the moment. And I was nearly convinced. The Academy is wont to be reactive toward the politics of the moment, and having Jafar Panahi take the stage in the midst of the Iran war is an image that voters might have in their mind when voting. That said, the sportsbooks still have It Was Just an Accident really long (FanDuel had it at +1400 two days ago). Too rich for my blood.

Will Win: Sentimental Value

Could Win: The Secret Agent

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As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Letterboxd)