Part 6. I’m almost out of this numeric hellscape. So many numbers…all I see is numbers…I can’t even remember how I started down this path. Let us count the ways, but how? All I can think is “six.” Has it always just been 6?

Here’s Part 1. Don’t forget Part 2. Part 3 is magical. I’ve never seen anything quite like Part 4. Part 5 will open your third eye and show you a wondrous universe of the mind unlike any you’ve ever imagined.

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Best Animated Short Film

There is one animated short that I have not been able to locate (most of the others are available on YouTube), so of course that will be the one that wins. The Three Sisters—look out for it. Of the four I have seen, this race could go a number of ways. I don’t think The Girl Who Cried Pearls has the juice, although it is an interesting little fable of sorts. It just doesn’t have the emotional oomph that I think Academy voters would go for, something that the other three candidates can say for itself. My instinct is to go for the closest thing to a cute Pixar short (Forevergreen), but the short with the best mix of pathos, politics, and animation quality is Butterfly. That is my pick; wouldn’t be surprised by Forevergreen, though.

Will Win: Butterfly

Could Win: Forevergreen

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Best Live Action Short Film

It is always difficult to know which way the voters will lean in any given year with the live action short category. Last year, I thought the Academy would go towards the political message short, and they went for comedy. This year has a bit of all flavors—the political short (Butcher’s Stain), the slice of life character study (A Friend of Dorothy, Two People Exchanging Saliva), the comedy short (Jane Austen’s Period Drama and, to a lesser extent, The Singers). The trend in recent years in this category is to the feel good, which would suggest either A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen’s Period Drama, or The Singers are the main competitors. Two People Exchanging Saliva is arguably the most well made of these five, in terms of its production and aesthetic (although the Netflix-distributed The Singers also looks great). A Friend of Dorothy is the GoldDerby favorite, but I would not be surprised if The Singers won. On the other hand, the Oscars have a habit of picking the most baffling option…could it be the borderline SNL sketch Jane Austen’s Period Drama? It’s anyone guess.

Will Win: The Singers

Could Win: A Friend of Dorothy

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Best Documentary Short Film

It would be very interesting if the film about the donkeys wandering around (Perfectly a Strangeness, Alison McAlpine) beat out the films about school shooting victims, the murder of an independent journalist, and children killed in war. It is an odd bit of counter-programming. All the Empty Rooms is a compelling choice here; it packages its heavy material very well. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud is more scattered as a document, but it is the subject matter that I believe voters will be most drawn by. Either of these could take it, frankly.

Will Win: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Could Win: All the Empty Rooms

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As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Letterboxd)