The Nominees:

• Tangerines — Zaza Urushadze
• Ida — Pawel Pawlikowski
• Leviathan — Andrey Zvyaginstev
• Wild Tales — Damian Szifron
• Timbuktu — Aderrahmane Sissako

Will Win: Leviathan

Could Win: Ida

Should Win: Leviathan

I think that Force Majeure, Sweden’s entry to the Foreign Language Film category, should have been here. Instead, Leviathan is the clear choice. Any other film winning would be a surprise. Ida is a beautifully shot film that is worth a watch, but I don’t think it can stand up to Leviathan.