Best Original Screenplay is the easier of the two screenplay categories to call. Best Adapted Screenplay is a mixed bag of strong screenplays with no clear frontrunner. Best Original Screenplay, on the other hand, is more clear cut.

All of the screenplays here are strong, don’t get me wrong. However, Spotlight is the script to beat.

Three of the five films in this category missed the mark for Best Picture, which makes them seemingly out of the running. And the Bridge of Spies script, penned by the Coen Brothers and Matt Charman, is very good. The Spotlight script, however, lays the groundwork for what is arguably the best ensemble performance of 2015.

Update: The Spotlight script from Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy took home the Writers Guild Award for Best Original Screenplay on Feb. 13, bolstering their already strong chances of taking home an Academy Award. They went on to win the BAFTA in the same category the following night. It is clear the Spotlight is the film to beat in this category, and for good reason.

Nominees:

• Bridge of Spies (Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
• Ex Machina (Alex Garland)
• Inside Out (Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie Del Carmen)
• Spotlight (Josh Singer, Tom McCarthy)
• Straight Outta Compton (Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus)

 

Will Win: Spotlight

Could Win: Bridge of Spies

Dark Horse: Straight Outta Compton

 

You can find a full list of 2016 Oscar predictions here.

As always, thanks for reading!

What do you think? What film will take home Best Screenplay? What was your favorite script of the year? Let me know in the comments!

—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)