Full disclosure: I have not seen any of these films yet. I’ll update this article as I do, but until then, let’s just look at the trends. They still count for something.

Best Foreign Language Picture

• Divines
• Elle
• Neruda
• The Salesman
• Toni Erdmann

Will Win: Elle

Could Win: Toni Erdmann

Dark Horse: Neruda

 

A quick rule of thumb: when a foreign language film receives a nomination in categories that fall outside of foreign language ones, it is almost certain to win Best Foreign Language Film. Usually this is because foreign language films rarely expand into other major categories in Hollywood award ceremonies.

In the case of 2017, Isabelle Huppert has a nomination for Best Supporting Actress in Paul Verhoeven’s Elle. As such, Elle becomes the frontrunner of the Best Foreign Language Picture race. Toni Erdmann received a decent amount of screentime in the U.S. in art house theaters and was well received. But Elle is very likely to take this award.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)