The visual effects category at the Academy Awards can be a tough category to call some years. Ex Machina winning last year was a big surprise to me, especially given Mad Max being in contention. The year before that you have Interstellar winning over Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, where either of those films could have taken the prize.

This year’s shortlist has a number of quality effects work on it. So…let’s get to it.

Best Visual Effects

• Arrival
• Doctor Strange
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• The Jungle Book
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Will Win: The Jungle Book

 

Aside from these five films, the Academy shortlist also includes Passengers, Kubo and the Two Strings, Captain America: Civil War, Deepwater Horizon, and The BFG.

The reasons why these films will not make the cut fall into multiple categories. Some were not as financially successful—The BFG and Deepwater Horizon. As such, these films were less seen and thus less likely to get votes. A film like Passengers doesn’t hold up quality-wise to make it to the big stage, so to speak. Kubo could get a nomination here, as the film is beautiful stop motion, but I think the Academy will settle with giving it an Animated Feature nod and leave it at that.

The only shortlisted film not included in my five that I could see edging into the nominee list is Captain America: Civil War. As far as what film will win the award, it could go any way really. I would give the nod to The Jungle Book because of its grand CG scale, but any of the films could win.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)