The Best Screenplay category of the 2018 Golden Globes is a stacked category. The easiest way to predict this one might be to look to other categories.

The Nominees – Best Screenplay

• Lady Bird

• The Post

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

• Molly’s Game

• The Shape of Water

Will Win: Lady Bird

Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win: Lady Bird

 

Perhaps it is wishful thinking to foresee Greta Gerwig taking home the Globe here, considering how Lady Bird was snubbed elsewhere. First-time solo director Gerwig was snubbed for Best Director. The HFPA could make up for this by awarding Gerwig the Best Screenplay award (the film’s script is arguably a greater achievement than Gerwig’s directing).

But the category is not devoid of competition. Playwright Martin McDonagh delivered another substantial, unpredictable script in Three Billboards. The Post appears to be the boilerplate award season script with the prestige of Spielberg behind the camera. Not to mention that Aaron Sorkin is always a threat to tip the scales in the screenplay category.

Still, the resounding critical success of Lady Bird should pay dividends at the Globes. The female acting categories seem primed for Lady Bird wins, and Best Screenplay seems a plausible win for it as well.

 

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)