What makes predicting the Best Foreign Language category easy is that much of the work has already been done for me! The category has already been narrowed down to just nine films, of which there are already clear favorites.

That said, there is still upset potential. In the Fade just won the Golden Globe, after all, to the surprise of even the winners themselves.

The Nominees:

• A Fantastic Woman
• Foxtrot
• In the Fade
• Loveless
• The Square

In the Hunt:

• The other four

 

You can’t really choose dark horses with so few competitors. If any of the top five were to be taken out, it would be Foxtrot or Loveless. But the director of Loveless has been a front-runner for this award before (Leviathan), so I wouldn’t count Loveless out entirely.

The real surprise remains to be In the Fade, which wasn’t necessarily favored for the Golden Globe but won it all the same. The Square was the determined front-runner before this upset, even though I always suspected its stock would drop as award season progressed. The Cannes Palme D’or winner doesn’t always line up with the Oscar winner.

What I thought was going to usurp The Square was A Fantastic Woman, which now seems less likely to compete. I’m still confident that it has its nomination locked in, but I am starting to doubt its ability to win (although, to be frank, I still think it would be my pick at this point).

Is this category going to be a battle between The Square and In the Fade? Well…looking to recent history seems to point toward: no. Last year’s Golden Globe winner in this category (Elle) was not even nominated for the Academy Award.