Early on in the year, it looked like Lady Gaga had Best Actress in the bag. A Star is Born hit strong, much stronger than The Wife. Over time, A Star is Born has cooled off a bit, particularly following its near shut-out at the Golden Globes. Glenn Close, as a result, has risen back into the conversation as a front-runner.

Nothing is certain, however, and an acting front-runner cannot truly be claimed as a true front-runner until they pick up the SAG award. Until that time, we can only speculate.

The Nominees:

• Glenn Close – The Wife
• Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite
• Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

Will Win: Glenn Close

Could Win: Olivia Colman

Dark Horse: Lady Gaga

Lady Gaga will end Oscar night with at least one award, as “Shallow” is far and away the favorite to win Best Original Song. For her to win that and Best Actress, in my mind, is a longshot.

The Wife might not be the biggest awards season movie (it is certainly the most underseen film of the five nominees), but Glenn Close is primed to win. It would be a legacy win, but her performance in The Wife fits the mold of an Oscar win all the same.

Meanwhile, The Favourite risks leaving the night empty-handed. With 10 nominations, none of the categories are sure-things for Yorgos Lanthimos’ film. In the case of Best Actress, Olivia Colman is giving one of her finest performances in the film. If it were a race without Close, I think Colman could beat out Gaga for the win. But as it stands now, I don’t see it. The only path for Colman involves her winning the SAG award, which is just as unlikely.

As for Yalitza Aparicio, I think she deserves the nomination. However, with only critics nominations under her belt and her lack of film credits I think a win for her is highly unlikely. On the other hand, for her and Marina de Tavira to receive nominations bodes well for Roma’s overall chances on Oscar night.

It is a two-horse race right now. Gaga taking it would be an upset, in my book, even if her performance in A Star is Born was strong. It certainly feels, as of today, that this is Close’s award to lose.

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)