Poor Shoplifters. Such a great film, yet such a slim chance of winning an Oscar. Even in a year without Roma, I don’t know if the Academy would give Kore-eda’s film its due.

Also, Burning.

But no use crying over spilled milk. The nominees are what they are. And it is clear where the conversation goes from here.

The Nominees:

• Capernaum
• Cold War
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• Shoplifters

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Dark Horse: Never Look Away

This is the easiest pick of the night. Roma will win Best Foreign Language Film. Hands down. Something crazy would have to happen to skew voting in a different direction.

And this is in a category with a lot of clout. Shoplifters is fantastic, but it might have the lowest chance of winning the award. Cold War is beautiful, and its nominations in other categories locks it in as the upset pick.

Those who are eligible to vote on Best Foreign Language Film are required to watch all five films. If that were not the case, then Never Look Away would have no chance. The three-hour epic would be left on the table unwatched.

Instead, I think Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck’s film has a better shot than Shoplifters and Capernaum. His film, the great The Lives of Others, won the Oscar in this category in 2006. And the cinematography nod that Caleb Deschanel received for Never Look Away gives it somewhat of an edge.

But again, none of that is of any concern, because Roma is the heavy heavy favorite to win.

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)