The 2024 Oscar nominations have been announced. Many things played out as expected, with one or two notable omissions (apologies to Margot Robbie) and inclusions (congrats to America Ferrera). The Oscar races, by and large, continue to move toward their likeliest conclusions. But some key nominations (or lack thereof) tip the trajectories of some races in unexpected directions.

Oppenheimer went into nomination morning the current front-runner and the film anticipated to receive the most nominations. It succeeded on that front, scoring 13 noms. With firm aspirations in both above and below the line categories, Christopher Nolan’s Manhattan Project epic is poised to, in all likelihood, pick up the most trophies at this year’s ceremony. Arguably, its chances for a Best Picture win are also bolstered by the fact that other prime contenders failed to show up in key categories.

Barbie surprisingly missed on Margot Robbie in Best Actress but hit on America Ferrera in Best Supporting Actress (defying the precursors). More importantly, Greta Gerwig did not make the Best Directing five. The same goes for Alexander Payne for The Holdovers. Both directors earned Director’s Guild nominations, the major precursor to the Oscar category.

Those Best Director spots went instead to Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall). The latter film did quite well this morning, picking up five nominations, including one for Sandra Hüller in a competitive Best Actress category. Zone also earned five noms. Both films are critical successes, and Anatomy benefits (some) from the Cannes Palme d’Or and a pair of Golden Globe awards. But neither film enters the Best Picture race as particularly strong contenders.

The Best Picture conversation has narrowed into one between Oppenheimer and Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things. From my vantage point, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon once held some claim to front-runner status, a status which has quickly dissolved over the course of awards season. (For what it’s worth, Killers was shut out of a couple categories which I think are telling, namely Best Adapted Screenplay).

The truth of the matter is that Oppenheimer is far more standard Best Picture material than Poor Things. Poor Things may be one of Lanthimos’ more accessible films (and his most accessible film, The Favourite, also earned a number of Oscar nominations in its year). But it is still a strange film, and one whose story is less grandiose than Nolan’s. The Academy has picked some “strange” films in the last few years, films which in earlier decades would never have been considered for Best Picture. One could make the argument that Oppenheimer has a staid quality befitting of an earlier era of Best Picture winner that the Academy no longer goes for. But it was ultimately a riskier movie than that argument gives it credit for (i.e., it was a major studio blockbuster released in the heart of the summer season about the building of the atomic bomb). Moreover, its award season buzz has only increased since it picked up a handful of awards on Golden Globes night.

Of course, it is far too early in the season to lock in Oscar predictions. Things could change substantially in the coming weeks. But I can see a path where Oppenheimer wins nine of its 13 categories.

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As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Letterboxd, Facebook)