The Golden Globes’ biggest honor is actually a split honor. For better or worse, the awards show divides its Best Picture race into two categories: one signifying the highest achievement in “Drama,” and the other in “Musical or Comedy”
This year, both races are fairly cut and dry with some wiggle room for an upset.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Manchester by the Sea
Dark Horse: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win (But Won’t): Florence Foster Jenkins
Dark Horse: Deadpool
In terms of “Musical or Comedy,” the award is La La Land‘s to lose. The other films on the list all have their merits. It is nice to see a genre picture/crass comedy like Deadpool get critical attention in this way. Sing Street is a wonderful musical. However, La La Land is the type of film Hollywood cannot get enough of, and it is the favorite to rule awards season in 2017.
Drama is a tad more difficult. It is a two horse race between Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, two films that meditate on the nature of masculinity. Hacksaw Ridge has acclaim behind it, and a nomination for Mel Gibson at director does not hurt. But the race is really a toss up between the films of Jenkins and Lonergan. I’m giving Moonlight the edge because it is a film that does not lean on any one cinematic element to makes its case (also, it has one more nomination than Manchester, so that may show a slight bias on the part of the HFPA).
As always, thanks for reading!
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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)