The two best actor races at this year’s Golden Globes will be, in all likelihood, unsurprising. Both categories—in Drama and Musical/Comedy—are stacked with talent. But trends show that two clear front runners have emerged.

Best Actor – Drama

• Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
• Joel Edgerton – Loving
• Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
• Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington – Fences

Will Win: Casey Affleck

Could Win: Denzel Washington

Dark Horse: Andrew Garfield

 

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

• Colin Farrell – The Lobster
• Ryan Gosling – La La Land
• Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
• Jonah Hill – War Dogs
• Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool

Will Win: Ryan Gosling

Could Win: Ryan Reynolds

Dark Horse: Colin Farrell

 

First up: Drama. Five talented actors, one inevitable winner. Casey Affleck is the guy. Plain and simple. Veteran Denzel Washington could sweep in and surprise, but Fences didn’t receive as much Golden Globe love as it could have (Washington did not receive a director nod, for one). After these two, the race widens significantly, where it is hard to even decide a sole Dark Horse.

If, by some crazy turn of events, Affleck and Washington get passed on, Garfield is next in line, if only because Hacksaw Ridge became a surprise critical success this November. Edgerton and Mortensen both gave career high performances this year, but they are both in movies that were not given as much attention.

In the comedy category, we have another clear man in charge: Ryan Gosling. La La Land is a heavy favorite this year, and Gosling is the male half of the film. While Emma Stone is getting the lion’s share of attention for the film, Gosling is much more likely to take the award than anyone else in the category. While it would be amazing to see Reynolds win for Deadpool, it does not seem feasible.

The rest of the category is more stagnant. Farrell’s turn in the quirky and offbeat The Lobster is quietly hilarious. Still, the film not getting a Best Picture nomination essentially takes him out of the running. Florence Foster Jenkins would need to really surprise in that same category for Grant to have a chance at the award. And Jonah Hill in War Dogs feels more like a body to fill out the category than anything else.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)