Perhaps I am starting to sound like a broken record at this point in my predictions. But the Best Supporting Actor category isn’t even close. We have a two horse race with an unlikely chance of an upset.
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
- Simon Helberg – Florence Foster Jenkins
- Dev Patel – Lion
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Could Win: Jeff Bridges
Dark Horse: Dev Patel
Let’s take this step by step. I am somewhat baffled by the heavy amount of Florence Foster Jenkins nominations, mostly because I have not seen the film. Still, I don’t see a path for Simon Helberg to win. The competition is far too stacked for that. Then you have Aaron Taylor-Johnson, whose performance is wicked and gritty, but it is not nuanced. Additionally, on an editorial note, I would have rather seen Michael Shannon here than Taylor-Johnson.
We are left with three players. Dev Patel leads Lion (why, then, is he nominated as a Supporting Actor? I really can’t tell). This said, there is something different about the performances of Bridges and Ali that cannot be overlooked. The veteran Bridges could have his name power as leverage in this case, where Ali is a lesser known name. Regardless, Mahershala Ali’s short turn in Moonlight is something else. He is the only one who should win the award, and if he doesn’t the HFPA has made a mistake.
As always, thanks for reading!
Like CineFiles on Facebook for more updates on the 2017 awards season.
—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)