Taking a look at the Best Actress races for the 2017 Golden Globes, and we finally have ourselves at least one tight race. Relatively.

Best Actress – Drama

• Amy Adams – Arrival
• Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane
• Ruth Negga – Loving
• Natalie Portman – Jackie
• Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Will Win: Natalie Portman

Could Win: Ruth Negga

Dark Horse: Isabelle Huppert

 

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

• Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
• Lily Collins – Rules Don’t Apply
• Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen
• Emma Stone – La La Land
• Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Will Win: Emma Stone

Could Win: Meryl Streep

Dark Horse: Annette Bening

 

Let’s start with the easy one. Emma Stone is the heavy favorite to win the Musical or Comedy category. Unless something disastrous happens to the La La Land public reception or PR, Stone is in the lead. Anytime you see the name Streep in a category, though, you do have to add a disclaimer. Meryl is always a threat to upset, even if Florence Foster Jenkins passed through theaters with significantly less buzz than La La Land is getting.

In the drama category, we have a tighter race. Portman emerges as the clear favorite. She leads the biopic Jackie, which is gaining traction at the perfect time for awards season. Given Loving has come and gone, Negga is less likely to take the award, even though her performance was revelatory. And Huppert’s performance in Elle is getting a lot of attention as of late. Still, the five women in this category all give amazing performances. The safe bet is Portman. The upset bet is literally anyone else.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)