Traversing the 2017 Academy Award category of Best Supporting Actor seems like walking through a minefield. Yes, I led you astray on the same category at the Golden Globes, but I think some slack should be cut for me. I mean, who would have guessed that Aaron Taylor-Johnson would upset?
Taylor-Johnson is notably absent from the Oscar running, which should hypothetically make this easier, as the Golden Globes cannot really be factored in. Still, anything could conceivably happen in this race without the SAG award around to give a prediction some evidential backing. Should I stick to my guns and keep the same path I hoed for the GGs, or adjust my choice accordingly?
Best Supporting Actor:
- Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
- Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
- Dev Patel – Lion
- Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Could Win: Jeff Bridges or Lucas Hedges
Should Win: Mahershala Ali
I admit bias to the case of my argument, and I admit it openly. I think Mahershala Ali deserves as much praise as possible for his role in Moonlight. This said, my bias may be painting my prediction into a corner.
Theoretically, any of these actors has a decent shot at the award, particularly given the Golden Globe nullification. But Shannon, as much as his performance is noteworthy, has not received as much attention this awards season as the other four. Even Lucas Hedges has been absent from the conversation at times.
I would say that this is a two-horse race with upset potential. Ali and Jeff Bridges, as I’ve said before, are going to duke this one out, but anyone could surprise. If there’s an upset, I would say the edge is in Hedges favor, given that sometimes the Academy favors young talent that experiences a breakout role (See: Anna Paquin, Jennifer Lawrence) and many agree that Manchester by the Sea is a top-three best film of the year.
As always, thanks for reading!
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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)