The narrative of the Golden Globes director category may end up being more about who was not included over who was. It was a deep well this year, with a lot of strong films coming from new and veteran directors. Yes, it is sad not to see newcomers Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele in the mix. Yes, it is surprising, yet wholly explainable, to see Ridley Scott here. Yes, Luca Guadagnino should have wound up in the top five.

 

But we live with the cards we’re dealt. If anything, the snubs make the prediction easier in the Best Director category.

The Nominees – Best Director

• Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

• Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

• Steven Spielberg – The Post

• Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water

• Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World

Will Win: Christopher Nolan

Could Win: Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: Christopher Nolan

 

Scott gets the fifth spot here thanks to the buzzer-beater decision to erase Kevin Spacey from his film All the Money in the World and still keep the film’s December release date. A bold, ambitious move. However, it is arguably not one that should have automatically netted him a nomination, especially considering the film has yet to be seen. Supposedly, the HFPA were rushed copies before voting, but still.

Regardless, it is highly unlikely that All the Money in the World will rise up to be the awards season surprise hit. To be frank, both trailers for the film (pre- and post-Spacey removal) made the film out to be a sub-par dramatic thriller. To be franker, I have a suspicion that the film will be no good at all, especially with the reshoots. Doing things fast for the sake of awards does not a good movie make.

So we’re down to four. McDonagh’s a long-shot given the rest of the talent on the stand here. His film was a success, but he is more of a writer than a director when all is said and done.

The Shape of Water leads the way with the most Golden Globe nominations, so it is unsurprising that Guillermo del Toro would be the favorite in this category. However, I think there is an argument to be made that even if his film wins Best Picture, he could lose Best Director.

This is because Hollywood favorite Steven Spielberg could sweep up and steal a few awards for The Post. Also, you can’t forget about Dunkirk. Nolan has yet to win a Globe or an Oscar, but his technical achievement in Dunkirk may be too good to pass up.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)