The two Best Actor categories this year both have good narratives to them. They are arguably the most exciting, as it is difficult to see exactly who is on top.

The Nominees:

Best Actor – Drama

• Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread

• Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

• Tom Hanks – The Post

• Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

• Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Could Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Dark Horse: Timothee Chalamet

 

Arguably, anyone could win in this category, save for Denzel Washington. Roman J. Israel, Esq. just didn’t rise to the surface of the award season conversation. In fact, it is surprising to see him squeeze into the top five at all. In my predictions, I had Jake Gyllenhaal rounding out the list for Stronger.

Regardless, this category isn’t as locked-in as it may appear. Since the first trailer dropped for Darkest Hour what feels like years ago, they have been trying to sell the film as Gary Oldman’s Oscar-winning performance (surprisingly, he has yet to win one and has only been nominated on one prior occasion).

But not so fast. This year marks what is supposed to be Daniel Day-Lewis’ final outing as an actor in Phantom Thread. Whether, over time, this proves to be true or not, Hollywood may be ready to give this man a curtain call by way of award (Oscar) after award (SAG award) after award (Golden Globe).

But wait! You hear of this kid Chalamet? He’s becoming a pretty big deal fast. He may be too wet behind the ears for the big game, but his performance in Call Me by Your Name is supposed to be a knockout.

Oh yeah…Tom Hanks is clanking around at the bottom of this acting bag, as well. Can you ever really count him out?

 

Best Actor – Comedy or Musical

• Ansel Elgort – Baby Driver

• Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman

• Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes

• Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

• James Franco – The Disaster Artist

Will Win: James Franco

Could Win: Daniel Kaluuya

Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya

 

The “Musical or Comedy” category, for lack of a better term, is an interesting conversation this year. The Disaster Artist has seen its stock sky-rocket over the last few weeks given its recent wide release. The film revolves around Franco’s transfixing performance as the enigmatic Tommy Wiseau. Without his performance, the film would not work. Naturally, then, he has become a front-runner in this category.

Conversely, the lack of adequate recognition for Get Out is not a good sign for Daniel Kaluuya, who thankfully received a nomination here. Interestingly, The Greatest Showman has received more HFPA recognition than most expected (for perspective: Showman has three Golden Globe nominations, Get Out only has two). Does this mean that Hugh Jackman has just as good, if not a better, shot at the award than Kaluuya?

I wouldn’t go that far, but The Greatest Showman is the type of narrative that Hollywood responds to. A glossy showbiz musical about white people reaching starry-eyed for their dreams of stardom. Remember La La Land?

Wishful thinking gives this award to Kaluuya. Play-it-safe thinking tosses it over to Franco. The part of my mind that envisions a crazy  unlikely scenario in which The Greatest Showman becomes an Oscar front-runner: the Jack man takes it here.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

Like CineFiles on Facebook for updates on new articles and reviews.

—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)