The crop of actresses in the two Best Actress Golden Globe categories is strong this year. Each category has its front-runners, but there is plenty of upset potential. Then again, I guess that’s how it always goes…

Whelp, let’s talk about it.

The Nominees:

Best Actress – Drama

• Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

• Meryl Streep – The Post

• Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

• Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game

• Michelle Williams – All the Money in the World

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Could Win: Sally Hawkins

Should Win: Frances McDormand

 

Were it not for The Shape of Water, it would be impossible to see a path where Frances McDormand fails to win the Golden Globe for Best Actress. Sally Hawkins is due for an Oscar, and her road to it starts with a win over McDormand at the Globes.

Sure Streep, Chastain, and Williams are formidable competition in any year. Still, it is hard to see this award going to anyone other than McDormand or Hawkins. That The Shape of Water rustled up the most nominations (7) seems to heighten Hawkins’ chances, but I wouldn’t be so certain.

 

Best Actress – Comedy or Musical

• Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

• Judi Dench – Victoria & Abdul

• Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

• Helen Mirren – The Leisure Seeker

• Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

Will Win: Saorise Ronan

Could Win: Margot Robbie

Dark Horse: Judi Dench

 

Unlike with the Drama category, the Musical/Comedy category is more open to an upset. While the race has mainly narrowed in on Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie, there is upset potential from Stone or Dench. Mirren in The Leisure Seeker seems a bit out of left field. As distinguished as Mirren is, it is difficult to foresee her upsetting the rest of this talented crop.

I wouldn’t tip the scales too far in Stone or Dench’s direction, however. The massive critical success of Lady Bird makes this Ronan’s Globe to lose, and the one forcing that upset would hypothetically be Robbie.

 

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)