The biggest conversation in the Best Foreign Language Film category this year is what is not nominated. With the unexpected Golden Globe winner In the Fade out of the race, it shakes up the Oscar conversation.

The Nominees:

• A Fantastic Woman
• Loveless
• On Body and Soul
• The Insult
• The Square

Will Win: A Fantastic Woman

Could Win: The Square

Dark Horse: Loveless

 

Every year in recent memory, it seems like the Best Foreign Language Feature category is an upset. There is always a singular front-runner that gets bested by the second in line (it seems). The Salesman took down the heavy favorite Toni Erdmann last year. Two years before that, Ida beat out the leader Leviathan.

Then again, in 2016 the heavy favorite, Son of Saul, did win. That said, Son of Saul cleaned up in pretty much every other award show’s Foreign Language category. In 2018, heavy favorite The Square has won essentially nothing since winning big at Cannes last year.

It’s still hard not to call it the front-runner. With Golden Globe-winning In the Fade not in contention, this seemingly opens up a clear path for The Square to take this. A Fantastic Woman, on the other hand, feels more buzzy in the now, where The Square has been cooling off as of late. Then there is the return of Leviathan director Andrey Zvyagintsev with Loveless.

The easy answer in this category is to lean on The Square, the safe pick. But even with In the Fade out, the losses for The Square feel more notable than they do to other nominees. That the clear leader has yet to pick up anything during award season makes it seem as if the leader is being passed on.

 

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)