Best Costume Design is an award that traditionally has gone to the most showy, flowery, and baroque costuming. Of course, there are always exceptions to this idea. Nominees are often period piece films. But not always. There is a fairly clear formula, but there is wiggle room therein.

The Nominees:

• Black Panther
• Crazy Rich Asians
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

In the Mix:

• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Colette
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Vox Lux

There are a few usual suspects in this crop of designers. Sandy Powell (12-time nominee) has both The Favourite and Mary Poppins Returns. Colleen Atwood (12-time nominee) has Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, a franchise for which she won an Oscar in 2017. Alexandra Byrne (four-time nominee) has Mary Queen of Scots.

All of these films could get in. Even Grindelwald, which is a dour and largely disliked film, has a chance. I can see a scenario where Powell gets one nomination (likely The Favourite) to make room for Atwood. But the costuming in Poppins is also right up the Academy’s alley.

Black Panther and two-time nominee Ruth Carter will also likely get in. A Marvel film has never received a nomination in this category, but films of that aesthetic ilk have. And the Afro-futurism in the costume design is something truly unique and well-crafted. It is currently my choice to win.

The least-likely nominee in my top five is Crazy Rich Asians, mainly because it is a contemporary-set film. But the film, including its costuming, is lavish enough to get in. But a fan favorite like Bohemian Rhapsody and its costume recreations have an equal chance.

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)