For whatever reason, Best Supporting Actor is, year after year, the easiest acting race to predict. It is often narrowed in on one or two candidates long before the Screen Actors Guild announce their awards. The SAGs just act to solidify the already established front-runner.

2019, by and large, shows the same conditions. The race is already narrowed down, and it is not hard to pick a winner before the SAGs even happen. There is always upset potential, but this race is much more predictable than the other categories.

The Nominees:

• Adam Driver – Blackkklansman
• Mahershala Ali – Green Book
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
• Sam Rockwell – Vice

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Could Win: Richard E. Grant

Should Win: Sam Elliott

I throw in a slight editorial here, because I do not think Sam Elliott has a chance at winning this thing. He is not in enough of A Star is Born to warrant a win over the other contenders (Driver and Ali are essentially co-leads of their films). But the few scenes he is in steal the show in Bradley Cooper’s film.

The real contenders here are Ali and Grant. Mahershala Ali is the most redeeming part of Green Book, a film that has already won numerous awards this awards season. Conversely, Can You Ever Forgive Me? has not won many awards, but Grant’s performance is scene-stealing.

Add to this competition the facts that Ali won this award just two years ago and Grant has never been nominated before. Perhaps the Academy will choose to honor someone new.

In a similar vein, Sam Rockwell won the award last year. He did not receive a SAG nomination for his role of George W. Bush in Vice. These two things combine to severely limit his chances.

Driver is not entirely out of this race, but Blackkklansman has not been performing exceedingly well over awards season. Unless there is an unlikely upset at the SAGs, Best Supporting Actor is a two-horse race.

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)