Unlike Best Supporting Actor, the 2019 award for Best Supporting Actress is a tough call. There is immense talent in this pool of actresses, and no single name has risen to a front-runner status.

So this will be a fun one to talk about!

The Nominees:

• Amy Adams – Vice
• Emma Stone – The Favourite
• Marina de Tavira – Roma
• Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Will Win: Regina King

Could Win: Amy Adams

Dark Horse: Emma Stone

At the onset of awards season, Regina King was the runaway favorite for her role in If Beale Street Could Talk. Since then, Beale Street has not earned many accolades. King won the Golden Globe in this category, but she did not receive a SAG nomination. That the SAG and Oscar winners are often the same hinders her chances a bit.

All the same, I see her as leading the pack. If Beale Street is going to take away anything on Oscar night, it will be here (Score, too, is a potential upset pick). The main reason why I think King’s chances are good is because both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz are nominated for the same film. Either could win—their performances are great—but two nominations for the same film in the same category means a split vote.

Marina de Tavira also did not receive a SAG nomination. She hasn’t received much attention at all for her supporting role in Roma, in spite of her strong performance. Her and Yalitza Aparicio are nominations I am happy to see, but neither seem like possible contenders. A full-on Roma sweep is the only scenario I see where they win in their respective categories, and a full-on Roma sweep would be a surprise.

A split vote for the The Favourite gals would inevitably raise the stock of Amy Adams. Although, Vice is a film whose stock has only been dropping since its Christmas release date. The showy performance of Christian Bale may win him an award; the less showy turn of Adams is not the type of performance the Academy scrambles to honor.

This is one of the more interesting categories of the night. There is high upset potential.