The Screen Actors Guild Awards haven’t happened yet, but it seems unlikely that anyone is going to stop Joaquin Phoenix. Is it my personal favorite performance in this batch? No. Is it my personal favorite Phoenix performance? Not even close. But he seems untouchable after winning the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award.

If you need more convincing, just look at his SAG competition. Taron Egerton and Christian Bale are notably absent from the Oscar race. If anyone is going to best Phoenix, it will be Adam Driver or Leonardo DiCaprio, but it seems that those actors’ screen partners have better chances at taking home the gold. DiCaprio is arguably outshined in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood by Brad Pitt (who also won the Globe and the Critics Choice). And while Driver and Johansson give knockout performances in equal measure in Marriage Story, the fact that the film is a clear two-hander only makes Phoenix look more impressive. Joker is Phoenix’s film, entirely. Without him, what would that film be?

The Academy loves performances like this, performances that define the movies they are contained within. Ensemble movies are a harder sell in these categories when these singular performances are in competition.

Banderas and Pryce are both quite good in their respective films (Banderas, in my personal opinion, is giving his career best performance). But they are not in the running for SAG, and they haven’t received any traction with wins from other major governing body.

Honestly, I think the Joker Oscar campaign would have to commit a major off-putting misstep to ruin this for Phoenix. Given that divisive film has navigated seas of controversy since its debut in September, this seems unlikely. But perhaps I shouldn’t speak so soon.