These are our 2023 Oscar predictions for Best Director, part of a series on this year’s awards. Check out full predictions in all Oscar categories.

Best Director

• Martin McDonagh — The Banshees of Inisherin
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert — Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Steven Spielberg — The Fabelmans
• Todd Field — Tár
• Ruben Ostlund — Triangle of Sadness

Will Win: Daniels

Could Win: Steven Spielberg

Dark Horse: Martin McDonagh

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s win at the Directors Guild Awards is a huge boost for them. It re-positions the race away from Steven Spielberg, the other apparent front-runner. Spielberg won the Golden Globe, but that did not come as a huge surprise. A big Hollywood figure whose film is a semi-autobiographical piece, that is the type of thing the Hollywood Foreign Press would go for. The place of The Fabelmans in the Oscar race since the Golden Globes has been more nebulous.

Everything Everywhere All At Once is a big title to topple, even for Spielberg. The Fabelmans still comes off as an obvious Academy favorite (whether that actually translates into any Oscar wins is a different question entirely), but Everything Everywhere is the little film that could, so to speak. That film last year was Coda, and that turned out to be a huge success. Everything Everywhere has an even better campaign going for it than Coda did. And it is likely to get at least one acting win on top of being one of the Best Picture favorites. Daniels is a strong pick in this category.

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As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Twitter, Letterboxd, Facebook)