These are our 2023 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor, part of a series on this year’s awards. Check out full predictions in all Oscar categories.
Best Supporting Actress
- Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Hong Chau – The Whale
- Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Angela Bassett
Could Win: Kerry Condon
Dark Horse: Jamie Lee Curtis
Angela Bassett has emerged as the front-runner very quickly and with almost no objection from anyone. She now seems like a clear lock to win – not that I’m complaining; despite my lukewarm response to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Bassett is really good. The category doesn’t have a competitor with as strong a buzz. Condon was the early favorite and could still pull an upset, although her BAFTA win was expected and isn’t likely to move the needle all that much.
The case for Condon involves her winning at the Screen Actors Guild awards this Sunday. If she does, she has a much stronger path to the Oscar. Considering the Academy’s relationship with Marvel films, a bit of added steam to Condon’s campaign could be enough for some Marvel doubters in the Academy to rally behind a new challenger.
I like Jamie Lee Curtis as a dark horse pick in this category. She is a well-liked Hollywood talent who’s being nominated for the first time in her career. She’s an outside possibility, especially if you think Everything Everywhere is going to clean up on Oscar night (it very well could). Counterpoint: Curtis and Hsu kind of cancel each other out. As for Hong Chau, while I think Brendan Fraser can outlast the critical reception of The Whale, considering his momentum, I don’t think Chau will (even though I think she is the best part about that movie).
Best Supporting Actor
- Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
- Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
- Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
Could Win: Brendan Gleeson
Dark Horse: Barry Keoghan
This will be the shortest blurb I write on this year’s awards. Ke Huy Quan has been the obvious choice in this category since before any awards season nominations were announced. His career narrative, paired with the overall awards stock of the film and his likability all throughout this season, combine to make for a sure thing. Quan will win.
The outside contenders are the dual Banshees nominees. Although, they may split their votes. Gleeson was the initial candidate pushed in this category from that film, then Keoghan came around and won the BAFTA. Both are good performances, but they are not getting the same attention that Quan is.
As always, thanks for reading!
—Alex Brannan (Twitter, Letterboxd, Facebook)