The Golden Globes are passed. The guild awards have happened. The Indie Spirits are now spirited away. The Oscars are one week away. It’s time to talk Oscar ballots.

We’ve already covered each Oscar category with more words than you’ll see here. But some variables have changed since then. And as much as I am one to tinker with these sorts of things until the very last minute, it’s time to commit in digital ink the site’s final predictions. Hopefully nothing unforeseen happens in the next six days.

Best Picture

• All Quiet on the Western Front – Malte Grunert
• Avatar: The Way of Water – James Cameron, Jon Landau
• The Banshees of Inisherin – Graham Broadbent, Peter Czerin, Martin McDonagh
• Elvis – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang
• The Fabelman – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner
• Tár – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan, Scott Lambert
• Top Gun: Maverick – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison, Jerry Bruckheimer
• Triangle of Sadness – Erik Hemmendorff, Philippe Bober
• Women Talking – Jeremy Kleiner, Dede Gardner, Frances McDormand

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Tár

Best Director

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg
• Tár – Todd Field
• Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund

Will Win: Daniels

Should Win: Todd Field

Best Actress

• Blonde – Ana de Armas
• Everything Everywhere All At Once – Michelle Yeoh
• The Fabelmans – Michelle Williams
• Tár – Cate Blanchett
• To Leslie – Andrea Riseborough

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh

Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Actor

• Aftersun – Paul Mescal
• The Banshees of Inisherin – Colin Farrell
• Elvis – Austin Butler
• Living – Bill Nighy
• The Whale – Brendan Fraser

Will Win: Brendan Fraser

Should Win: Paul Mescal

Best Supporting Actor

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Brendan Gleeson
• The Banshees of Inisherin – Barry Keoghan
• Causeway – Brian Tyree Henry
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – Ke Huy Quan
• The Fabelmans – Judd Hirsch

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan

Best Supporting Actress

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Kerry Condon
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Angela Bassett
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – Jamie Lee Curtis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – Stephanie Hsu
• The Whale – Hong Chau

Will Win: Kerry Condon

Should Win: Kerry Condon

Best Original Screenplay

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner
• Tár – Todd Field
• Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Tár

Best Adapted Screenplay

• All Quiet on the Western Front – Edward Berger, Lessley Paterson, Ian Stokill
• Glass Onion – Rian Johnson
• Living – Kazuo Ishiguro
• Top Gun: Maverick – Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig, Justin Marks
• Women Talking – Sarah Polley

Will Win: Women Talking

Should Win: Living

Best Editing

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
• Elvis – Matt Villa, Jonathan Redmond
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – Paul Rogers
• Tár – Monika Willi
• Top Gun: Maverick – Eddie Hamilton

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Cinematography

• All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend
• Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths – Darius Khondji
• Elvis – Mandy Walker
• Empire of Light – Roger Deakins
• Tár – Florian Hoffmeister

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: Tár

Best Production Design

• All Quiet on the Western Front – Christian M. Goldbeck, Ernestine Hipper
• Avatar: The Way of Water – Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, Vanessa Cole
• Babylon – Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
• Elvis – Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Beverley Dunn
• The Fabelmans – Rick Carter, Karen O’Hara

Will Win: Babylon

Should Win: Babylon

Best Costume Design

• Babylon – Mary Zophres
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Ruth E. Carter
• Elvis – Catherine Martin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – Shirley Kurata
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – Jenny Beavan

Will Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Should Win: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• All Quiet on the Western Front – Heike Merker, Linda Eisenhamerova
• The Batman – Michael Fontaine, Naomi Donne, Michael Marino
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Camille Friend, Joel Harlow
• Elvis – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Aldo Signoretti
• The Whale – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, Annemarie Bradley-Sherron

Will Win: The Whale

Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Sound

• All Quiet on the Western Front – Viktor Prasil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte
• Avatar: The Way of Water – Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bersnstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Michel Hedges
• The Batman – Stuart Wilson, Will Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson
• Elvis – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, Michael Keller
• Top Gun: Maverick – Mark Weingarten, James Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Original Score

• All Quiet on the Western Front – Volker Bertelmann
• Babylon – Justin Hurwitz
• The Banshees of Inisherin – Carter Burwell
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – Son Lux
• The Fabelmans – John Williams

Will Win: Babylon

Should Win: Babylon

Best Original Song

• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – “Lift Me Up” – Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Goransson
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – “This is a Life” – Ryan Lott, David Byrne, Mitski
• RRR – “Naatu Naatu” – M.M. Keeravani, Chandrabose
• Tell it Like a Woman – “Applause” – Diane Warren
• Top Gun: Maverick – “Hold My Hand” – Lady Gaga, BloodPop

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR

Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR

Best Visual Effects

• All Quiet on the Western Front – Frank Petzold, Viktor Muller, Markus Frank, Kamil Jaffar
• Avatar: The Way of Water – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barett
• The Batman – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dominic Tuohy
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, Daniel Sudick
• Top Gun: Maverick – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, Scott R. Fisher

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Animated Feature

• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan, Paul Mezey
• Pinocchio – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, Alexander Bulkley
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – Joel Crawford, Mark Swift
• The Sea Beast – Chris Williams, Jed Schlanger
• Turning Red – Domee Shi, Lindsey Collins

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best Documentary Feature

• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John S. Lyons, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov
• All that Breathes – Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann, Teddy Leifer
• Fire of Love – Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, Ina Fichman
• A House Made of Splinters – Simon Lereng Wilmont, Monica Hellstrøm
• Navalny – Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, Shane Boris

Will Win: Fire of Love

Should Win: Fire of Love

Best International Film

• All Quiet on the Western Front – Germany
• Argentina, 1985 – Argentina
• Close – Belgium
• Eo – Poland
• The Quiet Girl – Ireland

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: Argentina, 1985

Best Animated Short Film

• The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse – Matthew Freud, Charlie Mackesy
• The Flying Sailor – Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby
• Ice Merchants – João Gonzalez, Bruno Caetano
• My Year of Dicks – Sara Gunnarsdóttir, Pamela Ribon
• An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It – Lachlan Pendragon

Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

Should Win: My Year of Dicks

Best Live Action Short Film

• An Irish Goodbye – Tom Berkeley, Ross White
• Ivalu – Anders Walter, Rebecca Pruzen
• Night Ride – Eirik Tveiten, Gaute Lid Larssen
• The Pupils – Alice Rohrwacher, Alfonso Cuaron
• The Red Suitcase – Cyrus Neshvad

Will Win: The Pupils

Should Win: The Red Suitcase

Best Documentary Short Subject

• The Elephant Whisperers – Kartiki Gonsalves, Guneet Monga
• Haulout – Evgenia Arbugaeva, Maxim Arbugaev
• How Do You Measure a Year? – Jay Rosenblatt
• The Martha Mitchell Effect – Beth Levison, Anne Alvergue
• Stranger at the Gate – Joshua Seftel, Conall Jones

Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers

Should Win: The Elephant Whisperers

---

As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Twitter, Letterboxd, Facebook)