Category Archives: Award Ceremonies

My thoughts and predictions, or results and other news on various Award shows.

2025 Academy Awards, Long Reviews (>400 Words)

2025 Academy Award Predictions — My Oscar Ballot

In previous years, I have taken the time to break down every Oscar race, assess each nominee’s odds, and ultimately give a prediction in each category. This year, time is short, so here we are. Last second predictions.

Here is one film critic’s ballot of Oscar predictions, full of hedged bets, personal opinions, the occasional bold swing, and pauses for halfhearted explanation.

Best Picture

Will Win: Anora
Could Win: The Brutalist
Biased Opinion: The Substance or Nickel Boys should win

I mulled over the possibilities of Continue reading 2025 Academy Award Predictions — My Oscar Ballot →

2025 Academy Awards, Long Reviews (>400 Words)

Academy Awards 2025: Oscar Race Changes Direction after Critics, DGA, and PGA Announce Winners

Heading into this weekend, the 2025 Oscar season was already a complicated conversation. Embroiled in controversy, the one-time favorite from Netflix, Emilia Pérez, found its awards chances slipping through its fingers. The film was already a controversial film when it left Oscar nomination morning with the most nominations (13). The ensuing discovery of not-so-old social media posts from actress Karla Sofia Gascon has added significant baggage to the film’s campaign.

In an attempt to cut Gascon out of the film’s broader Oscar campaign, director Jacques Audiard has distanced himself from the actress and denounced her posts (Audiard himself has received his own share of criticism for some interview faux pas). And Gascon has stopped campaigning alongside the film’s other nominees.

Still, a meaningful rebound for Emilia Pérez will be difficult, and frankly there is not a lot of time left for Netflix and the film’s stable of nominees to convince Academy voters to stick with the film that they gave a baker’s dozen nominations.

The frontrunner status for Emilia Pérez was Continue reading Academy Awards 2025: Oscar Race Changes Direction after Critics, DGA, and PGA Announce Winners →

2025 Academy Awards, Award Ceremonies, Long Reviews (>400 Words)

Surprises from the 2025 Oscar Nominations

Spoiler alert: There aren’t many.

The 2025 Academy Awards nominations have been announced, officially solidifying the Oscar campaigns of a number of awards hopefuls.

Many of the films nominated were the ones prognosticators were expecting. Truly, the most shocked I was watching Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announce the nominees was seeing the Elton John song get a Best Original Song nomination. Even with this, after thinking about it for a moment, it made reasonable sense as a nomination.

As much as we can talk about surprises, these are the snubs and unexpected noms from this morning’s announcement.

Best Picture Snubs

Given the Academy’s recent track record of nominating a buzzy non-American production in Best Picture (this year there are two), it is not a total shock to see Continue reading Surprises from the 2025 Oscar Nominations →

2024 Academy Awards, Long Reviews (>400 Words)

2024 Academy Awards Nominations Reaction: Is Oppenheimer Set for an Oscars Sweep?

The 2024 Oscar nominations have been announced. Many things played out as expected, with one or two notable omissions (apologies to Margot Robbie) and inclusions (congrats to America Ferrera). The Oscar races, by and large, continue to move toward their likeliest conclusions. But some key nominations (or lack thereof) tip the trajectories of some races in unexpected directions.

Oppenheimer went into nomination morning the current front-runner and the film anticipated to receive the most nominations. It succeeded on that front, scoring 13 noms. With firm aspirations in both above and below the line categories, Christopher Nolan’s Manhattan Project epic is poised to Continue reading 2024 Academy Awards Nominations Reaction: Is Oppenheimer Set for an Oscars Sweep? →

2023 Academy Awards, Award Ceremonies

2023 Academy Awards Predictions — Final Ballot

The Golden Globes are passed. The guild awards have happened. The Indie Spirits are now spirited away. The Oscars are one week away. It’s time to talk Oscar ballots.

We’ve already covered each Oscar category with more words than you’ll see here. But some variables have changed since then. And as much as I am one to tinker with these sorts of things until the very last minute, it’s time to commit in digital ink the site’s final predictions. Hopefully nothing unforeseen happens in the next six days.

Best Picture

  • All Quiet on the Western Front – Malte Grunert
  • Avatar: The Way of Water – James Cameron, Jon Landau
  • The Banshees of Inisherin – Graham Broadbent, Peter Czerin, Martin McDonagh
  • Elvis – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang
  • The Fabelman – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner
  • Tár – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan, Scott Lambert
  • Top Gun: Maverick – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison, Jerry Bruckheimer
  • Triangle of Sadness – Erik Hemmendorff, Philippe Bober
  • Women Talking – Jeremy Kleiner, Dede Gardner, Frances McDormand

Will Win: Continue reading 2023 Academy Awards Predictions — Final Ballot →

2023 Academy Awards, Award Ceremonies, Long Reviews (>400 Words)

How the 2023 Screen Actors Guild Awards Change the Oscar Acting Races

This update is part of our 2023 Oscar predictions series. Check out our full predictions in all Oscar categories.

There were some big moments at yesterday’s Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards, including some surprises which have implications on the Academy Awards acting races (in three of the four acting categories, anyway).

To begin with, Ke Huy Quan won Best Supporting Actor for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Not the least bit surprising, and this notch in Quan’s awards season belt (the most recent of many) means that Continue reading How the 2023 Screen Actors Guild Awards Change the Oscar Acting Races →

2023 Academy Awards, Award Ceremonies, Long Reviews (>400 Words)

Ranking The 2023 Best Picture Oscar Nominees by Their Winning Chances

These are our 2023 Oscar predictions for Best Picture, part of a series on this year’s awards. Check out full predictions in all Oscar categories.

This article will attempt to adjudicate the state of the Best Picture race for this year’s Academy Awards, as it stands on Feb 25, 2023. There is still plenty of time for things to change and for this race to become a completely different monster. So take this all with that grain of salt in mind.

10. Women Talking

Despite critical acclaim, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking did not show up on Oscar nomination morning. Given the film’s (very) early buzz, it could have picked up Continue reading Ranking The 2023 Best Picture Oscar Nominees by Their Winning Chances →

2023 Academy Awards, Award Ceremonies

2023 Academy Awards Predictions — Best Director

These are our 2023 Oscar predictions for Best Director, part of a series on this year’s awards. Check out full predictions in all Oscar categories.

Best Director

  • Martin McDonagh — The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert — Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Steven Spielberg — The Fabelmans
  • Todd Field — Tár
  • Ruben Ostlund — Triangle of Sadness

Will Win: Continue reading 2023 Academy Awards Predictions — Best Director →

2023 Academy Awards, Award Ceremonies, Long Reviews (>400 Words)

2023 Academy Awards Predictions — Best Actress and Best Actor

These are our 2023 Oscar predictions for Best Actor and Best Actress, part of a series on this year’s awards. Check out full predictions in all Oscar categories.

Best Actress

  • Ana de Armas – Blonde
  • Cate Blanchett – Tár
  • Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
  • Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
  • Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Continue reading 2023 Academy Awards Predictions — Best Actress and Best Actor →

2023 Academy Awards, Award Ceremonies, Long Reviews (>400 Words)

2023 Academy Awards Predictions — Best Animated Short, Best Live Action Short, Best Documentary Short Film

These are our 2023 Oscar predictions for Best Animated Short Film, Best Documentary Short Subject, and Best Live Action Short Film, part of a series on this year’s awards. Check out full predictions in all Oscar categories.

Best Live Action Short Film

  • An Irish Goodbye
  • Ivalu
  • Night Ride
  • The Pupils
  • The Red Suitcase

Will Win: Continue reading 2023 Academy Awards Predictions — Best Animated Short, Best Live Action Short, Best Documentary Short Film →