There are only three nominees in the Best Makeup & Hairstyling category, so my job here should be easy. Correct?

Hm…maybe. Maybe not.

The Nominees:

• Darkest Hour
• Victoria & Abdul
• Wonder

Will Win: Darkest Hour

Could Win: Wonder

 

The work done in Victoria & Abdul is less transformative than the other two nominees. I didn’t predict it to get a nomination, frankly. Even with a smaller pool of films to contend with, it seems unlikely to win here.

Darkest Hour is the heaviest hitter in this category. The Academy likes this film (it earned six nominations). The nomination here is for the makeup work on Gary Oldman. He commented on the lengthy makeup process during his Golden Globe acceptance speech. The film just seems poised to take this one.

Wonder could upset. The makeup work here is crucial to the film. However, if Gary Oldman is the front-runner for the Best Actor award, it is hard to see Darkest Hour not winning Best Makeup & Hairstyling. Oldman’s performance requires the makeup work.

Here’s a theory, and perhaps it holds no water. If this category falls the way of Wonder or Victoria & Abdul, perhaps that is an omen against Oldman winning Best Actor later in the night. I don’t know; I’m thinking out loud.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)