The Oscar acting categories can be predictable. Come this evening, following the Screen Actors Guild awards, the 2020 acting races may very likely be even more predictable. And Best Supporting Actress is no exception. The category has its frontrunner, and a SAG win for her will all but seal the race up.

The Nominees:

• Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story
• Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
• Florence Pugh – Little Women
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Will Win: Laura Dern

Could Win: Scarlett Johansson

Dark Horse: Florence Pugh

The TL;DR of this category is that it is almost an insurmountable task for one of these nominees to beat Laura Dern. Dern’s Oscar campaign has been strong, and nothing has really slowed down her Oscar stock during the voting timetable.

But let’s make this interesting. Let’s just take Dern out of the conversation for a second. In this more open field, I think Scarlett Johansson or Florence Pugh would take this award home. Sorry Kathy Bates, but this nomination for Richard Jewell feels like it is coming out of left field. And Margot Robbie is quite good in Bombshell, but the film doesn’t have as high of an awards season stock as Lionsgate was hoping for. Most likely, the only award Bombshell will walk away with is Best Makeup and Hairstyling.

Occasionally, the Academy likes to christen a new Hollywood star with an acting award. They did it for Jennifer Lawrence and Alicia Vikander. And they could do it for Florence Pugh, who certainly earned it with her performances in 2019, not just in Little Women but in Midsommar, as well.

As discussed previously, Johansson would win an Oscar for her 2019 given different circumstances. But, given her two nominations in crowded fields, it seems unlikely that she will take either. Without Dern in this category, an argument could be made for her winning in this category. But even then, it would be a tight race between her and Pugh.

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)