These are our 2023 Oscar predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay, part of a series on this year’s awards. Check out full predictions in all Oscar categories.

Best Original Screenplay

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Could Win: Everything Everywhere

Dark Horse: Tár

Original Screenplay is a surprisingly tough category this year. The Banshees of Inisherin is the loose favorite, I would think. It is the type of screenplay that gets appreciation, both for its dialogue and its structure. In a lot of ways, the way the story unfolds is the reason why the film works as well as it does (on top of the performances, that is). Given there is a chance that this film will come up short in the other categories on many people’s ballots, this may be the place where voters slot it in. In short, it could be a concession honor.

If this Oscar narrative does not come to pass, then the category could be part of a sweep narrative. Everything Everywhere has been the steady favorite all season, and if it winds up talking home a bunch of awards, this might be another notch in its Oscar belt.

Beyond these two, the race is wide open. On the off chance The Fabelmans upsets in Best Picture, it could also pick up this award. If Tár is going to win anything outside of Blanchett, it is this award – it would be a fitting pairing, given Blanchett’s performance and the cutting dialogue she is given complement each other so well. Triangle of Sadness, meanwhile, remains a huge question mark on this Oscar race. It over-performed on Oscar nomination morning, and its structure is a very noticeable aspect.

Ultimately, there is a lot of upset potential in this category. If you are looking at that possibility, you have to also consider that Banshees did not receive a Writers Guild Award nomination. This doesn’t necessarily unseat the film as the favorite (Belfast won this category last year after not getting a WGA nom), but it is a notable omission.

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Best Adapted Screenplay

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Glass Onion
• Living
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Women Talking

Will Win: Women Talking

Could Win: Glass Onion

Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

Adapted Screenplay is less of a tossup, but it is nevertheless an interesting category. The inclusion of Top Gun: Maverick throws a bit of a wrench into things. It getting nominated here shows that multiple branches of the Academy really appreciate the film beyond its box office bona-fides. It is also potentially a more watched film than, say, Living.

Meanwhile, the dramatically falling Oscar stock of Women Talking has left this category as its last bastion for Oscar glory. I think it picks up the statue here, just given how well-received that film was. I can see a lot of members wanting to reward this film in some form, and this is the place to do it.

Glass Onion, meanwhile, has become Netflix’s second banana this season. Netflix’s campaigning has certainly pivoted to All Quiet on the Western Front, so perhaps Glass Onion is primed to slip through the cracks and lose this one. However, both Knives Out films have gotten the nomination, so the Academy clearly appreciates Rian Johnson’s brand of whodunit comedy. I wouldn’t fully put this race away.

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As always, thanks for reading!

—Alex Brannan (Twitter, Letterboxd, Facebook)