Unlike the Best Original Screenplay contenders, the 2018 Best Adapted Screenplay crop runs thin. There are five slots to fill, and the number of sure-things is only about three deep. This leaves a couple of contested spots that could seemingly be filled by any number of movies.
In the Hunt:
The “in the hunt” section of this category is an uncertain beast. Last Flag Flying and The Beguiled are off the beaten path for any Academy category; the films aren’t receiving award season campaigns at all, it seems. All the Money in the World and Blade Runner 2049 are more buzzy, sure, but their scripts are certainly not their strongest suits.
The top five isn’t the most secure, though. Call Me By Your Name, Molly’s Game, and The Disaster Artist are locked in. The jury’s still out on how the Academy will treat Mudbound, a film that is certainly deserving of this nomination and others but is also a Netflix property. And Wonder has the critical reception to sneak in in a number of categories, but it too hasn’t had a rigorous campaign to date.
Logan is the biggest question mark. Not a conventional choice, but it earned a WGA nomination where Wonder and the other outliers did not. Could it sneak in? I find it unlikely, but a WGA nomination is nothing to bat an eyelash at, given that a similar group of writers will choose the Oscar pool.