Having the screenplay category split in two generally makes predicting the nominees and winners fairly easy. At this stage in the 2018 awards season, though, there are plenty of outliers who could sneak into the mix. Even scripts that seem like obvious choices could become victim to an upset.

The Nominees:

• The Big Sick
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• The Shape of Water

In the Hunt:

• I, Tonya
• Phantom Thread
• The Post

 

I’m kind of picking and choosing between the Golden Globes and WGAs for this one. Three Billboards is noticeably absent from the WGA nominations, but it just won the Golden Globe in this category. The McDonagh script certainly has enough merit to get into the Academy top five.

The real weak point in the top five as I have it now is The Big Sick. It received a WGA nod, but the film was completely absent from the Golden Globes. The film’s stock has been falling ever since. Add to that The Post, penned in part by the Oscar-winning screenwriter of Spotlight, and it becomes easy to see the two films switch places.

There is also I, Tonya. It received a WGA nomination and has recently seen a nationwide release. Allison Janney, in her Golden Globe acceptance speech, shouted out the excellent writing of the film (the Academy voting process began two days prior to the Golden Globes). Has the Oscar campaign for I, Tonya officially begun? Could it sneak in here (and elsewhere)? I wouldn’t count it out.