This year, Best Original Screenplay is a category stacked with talent. All five of the scripts here are sharp, personal, and powerful when they need to be.
Only one can win, of course, so let’s talk about it,
Will Win: Lady Bird
Could Win: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: The Shape of Water
It’s nice to see some recognition for The Big Sick. This nomination is its only one, and it won’t win the category. But still, it’s nice to see.
Lady Bird and Three Billboards are apparent front-runners in this category. Either could win it. McDonagh could win it as a consolation prize for not earning a Best Director nod. But I think Gerwig’s script is the more pronounced and poignant of the two. Lady Bird is the fan favorite, after all.
I wouldn’t discount The Shape of Water here, either. It is a more under-stated script than Lady Bird or Three Billboards, but it is one that shows flourishes of poeticism that are fascinating. That said, Guillermo del Toro being favored for Best Director could hurt his chances here, with voters spreading the love around.
As always, thanks for reading!
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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)