Whelp, it’s time to pat myself on the back for getting these five nominees correct—including the long shot The Boss Baby—in my previous article.

…

That was fun. Now let’s move back to the present. That these are the five that ended up getting the nod actually makes this job a bit easier, so let’s get into it.

The Nominees:

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

Will Win: Coco

Could Win: The Breadwinner

Dark Horse: Loving Vincent

 

With The Boss Baby and Ferdinand making it into the top five—arguably, those spots should have went to better films—we can more easily narrow this race down. (i.e. these two films won’t win anything).

With the race whittled down to three, we can look at Coco versus everyone. The Pixar film picked up the Golden Globe and has been cleaning up at regional critics choice awards. Loving Vincent may have the production gimmick that can set it apart in its Oscar campaign, but it doesn’t have the Pixar charm to it.

The Breadwinner is the quiet underdog here. The film has won one or two international awards. But, more importantly, it greatly out-paces Loving Vincent at the Annie Awards (aka the Hollywood animation awards). These Annie nominations go as follows: Coco (23), The Breadwinner (19), Loving Vincent (5).

Of course, the entire Academy is picking this winner, as opposed to just animation professionals. This would give even more of an edge to Coco. But if enough of the Academy actually watches The Breadwinner, it could pull a major upset. This is not the likely scenario, but it is a possibility.

 

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)