The breakdown of this year’s Best Animated Feature Film category by studio is fairly interesting. Historically, Pixar leads all studios in nominations and wins, which is not particularly surprising. However, there is not enough history to the category to judge how Toy Story 4 will fair against its predecessors (the category was first awarded after the releases of Toy Story and Toy Story 2).

DreamWorks, the studio behind How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, won the first ever Best Animated Film Oscar in 2002 for Shrek. It hasn’t won since, including nominations but no wins for the previous How to Train Your Dragon films. Laika, which released Missing Link last year, has five nominations and zero wins.

The Nominees:

• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
• I Lost My Body
• Klaus
• Missing Link
• Toy Story 4

Will Win: Toy Story 4

Could Win: Missing Link

Dark Horse: Klaus

The easy answer in this category is Toy Story 4. It didn’t necessarily land with a splash like some Pixar films do, but it is competing in a category littered with underseen films. With Frozen II out of the picture, Toy Story 4 is easily the most seen film of the five. Being on Netflix during the holiday season may have helped Klaus in this regard. But a film like I Lost My Body, despite getting some attention from critics circles, is not very likely to get a plurality of votes.

The Laika name may help Missing Link, and the awards season campaigning did help the film get the Golden Globe. If anything is going to go toe-to-toe with Pixar, it is this film. But I would put my money on Toy Story 4.

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)