I think we can all agree: this is a pretty easy one.

The Nominees:

• Corpus Christi
• Honeyland
• Les Miserables
• Pain and Glory
• Parasite

Will Win: Parasite

Could Win: Pain and Glory

Dark Horse: Honeyland

There isn’t much up for debate in this category. If Parasite doesn’t win this, then I don’t know what went wrong. Maybe someone counted the ballots incorrectly? I don’t know. But this is the most cut and dry category of the night. Parasite is in the Roma slot. It has enough genuine buzz to win in other categories, and, while it might do just that, it has Best International Film locked up as the backup prize.

If you took Parasite out of the running entirely, then Almodovar’s Pain and Glory would probably win this handily. Honeyland also racked up a Best Documentary nomination, which separates it from Poland’s Corpus Christi and France’s Les miserables (if you ask me, it isn’t even France’s best film from 2019). But it is a moot point which we can disregard, because Parasite will win this.

The more pressing conversation is whether or not Best International Film harms the chances of Parasite in the other categories in which it is nominated. Would Roma have been higher on voters’ Best Picture ballots last year if they didn’t have the peace of mind knowing it would win in Best International Film (then called Best Foreign Language Film)? Parasite, arguably a more broadly appealing international film than the art-house Roma, may have a better shot at Best Picture than Roma did. But is this category going to lose it some votes? I would hazard to guess that the answer is yes. It’s unfortunate, really.

As always, thanks for reading!

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—Alex Brannan (@TheAlexBrannan)