People were surprised when Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele were snubbed for the Golden Globes crop of directors. Will they get into the Academy nominations? Is there a scenario in which Spielberg doesn’t get in? Will Guillermo Del Toro win…well that’s an article for another day.

Let’s talk about it!

The Nominees:

• Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
• Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
• Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
• Steven Spielberg – The Post

In the Hunt:

• Sean Baker – The Florida Project
• Sophia Coppola – The Beguiled
• Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name
• Jordan Peele – Get Out
• Dee Rees – Mudbound

 

One could make the case for many outliers in this category—Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World), Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman), Joe Wright (Darkest Hour). I cut the dark horses off at five, mainly because the five I picked have pretty valid arguments.

If The Florida Project nabs a Best Picture nomination, it isn’t out of the question that Baker would sneak in here. Get Out and Call Me By Your Name are almost certainly going to get there Best Picture slots, so either of those guys could get in (Gerwig seems the likelier of the two newcomers to get into the top five, however).

Rees is the farthest outlier of the five, mostly because it is unclear if the Academy has entirely warmed up to the Netflix cinema landscape. Coppola, too, is a stretch given the distance of her film’s release. Don’t forget that Coppola won the Best Director award at Cannes, though; for whatever that’s worth.

As for the top five: I think they speak for themselves. This isn’t the hardest category to pin down. Watch for any surprises coming out of the DGA nominees. Otherwise, this is a strong five. McDonagh could be left out, only nabbing a screenwriting nod. His film’s Golden Globe Best Picture win makes that seem a hard sell. Spielberg, however…The Post has yet to receive a major film award.