The biggest movie award for the year of 2017: The Oscar for Best Picture. There is a fine crop of movies from which the Academy can select its nominees this year. But there’s only room for 10.

Which 10?  Well…

The Nominees:

• Call Me By Your Name
• Dunkirk
• Get Out
• I, Tonya
• Lady Bird
• The Post
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

In the Hunt:

• The Big Sick
• Darkest Hour
• The Florida Project
• Mudbound
• Phantom Thread

 

The Best Picture category tops out at 10 films, but there can be anywhere from five to 10. With their nomination process, the Academy aims to nominate the most preferred films. By this system, a film is more likely to be nominated if it is #1 or #2 on people’s ballots.

Taking this system into account, I foresee eight ultimate nominees for Best Picture in 2018. Among these eight are a number of sure-things: Three Billboards, Lady Bird, The Post, The Shape of Water, and Dunkirk. In the old five-nominee format, this would likely be your top five.

Get Out and Call Me By Your Name will more than likely cross the magic number threshold to obtain nominations, as well. I threw in I, Tonya to round out the top eight due to the recency of its wide release and its ability to pick up nominations in other key categories—Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Editing.

If the category went to the full 10, The Florida Project and Mudbound are top choices to fill the space. But any of the five in the hunt films have a fighting chance of nudging in.